Stock market bear case, Trump tariffs: Nifty at 22,000? Top picks for up to 54% upside

Shrugging off concerns over US tariffs, the NSE benchmark Nifty was trading higher at 23,250-odd levels in Wednesday's trade. In its bear case scenario, which incorporates the likelihood of a policy shift in the Trump regime, Axis Securities suggested a Nifty target of 22,000 level by December 2025. Its bull case scenario, which foresees a successful soft landing for the US economy, pegged Nifty target at 27,000!

Prestige Estates Projects, Hero MotoCorp and HDFC Bank are among Axis Securities' top stock picks for April. These stocks can deliver up to 54 per cent returns, the brokerage said.

India could potentially lose $6 billion or 0.16 per cent GDP in exports to the US at 10 per cent broad tariffs. The loss may rise to $31 billion at 25 per cent tariffs, Emkay Global projected.

In the bear case, Axis Securities assumed inflation to pose as big challenge for the developed world, including the US, noting that global markets have not seen high levels of interest rates in the past. "The direction of currency, oil prices, and development towards global trade is likely to put pressure on export-oriented growth in 2025. These developments will likely bring down the  market multiple in the near term," it said.

Taking about the bull case, Axis Securities sees the beginning of the rate cut cycle. The brokerage said the outlook for a soft landing has notably strengthened over the last one to two months.

"The market is keenly watching the global growth scenario in 2025 under Trump's presidency. Furthermore, private capex, which has been sluggish for the  last several years, is expected to receive a much-needed boost in the upcoming  years," it said while expecting Nifty earnings to grow at 17-18 per cent over FY23-27. This would augur well for capital inflows into emerging markets  (EMs) and increase the market multiples in the domestic market, Axis Securities added.

Meanwhile, in the base case, Nifty earnings is seen growing at 14 per cent compounded annually. Financials are seen contributing the most to FY25/26 earnings.

"However, trade policy uncertainty, rupee  depreciation, and relatively higher valuations compared to other emerging markets, even after the correction, remain key risks to near-term market multiples. Based on  these factors, we maintain our base case December 2025 Nifty target at 24,600 by valuing it  at 19 times on December 2026 earnings," Axis Securities said.