Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 90 points; key levels for Nifty, Nifty Bank & Sensex

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open lower on Monday, tracking global and Asian peers, beginning the week on a cautious note as persistent foreign selling and uncertainty over a trade deal with the US continue to weigh on sentiment. India's retail inflation rose to 0.71% in November from a record low in the prior month.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 90.40 points, or 0.35 per cent, down at 26,055, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks tumbled in early trading on Monday. Nikkei and KOSPI tanked 1-1.25 per cent each, while Hang Seng was also seen lower.

The US stocks closed down on Friday with investors leaving technology for other sectors amid concerns about an AI bubble. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 245.96 points, or 0.51 per cent to 48,458.05; the Nasdaq Composite lost 398.69 points, or 1.69 per cent, to 23,195.17 while the S&P 500 tanked 73.59 points, or 1.07 per cent, to 6,827.41.

The dollar was nursing losses on Monday while the euro and sterling held steady ahead of their respective central bank decisions this week. The dollar was struggling to break away from a near two-month low hit last week and stood at 98.43. The rupee's rough patch is likely to extend into the final few weeks of the year as weak flows and the lack of a US trade deal hit sentiments.

In commodities, Brent crude was 0.3 per cent higher at $61.30. Gold fluctuated between gains and losses after a four-day rally last week that saw it approach its record high of $4,381.21. Spot bullion prices were down 0.1 per cent at $4,299.69. Cryptocurrency markets remained under pressure for a fourth consecutive day.

Participants shall stay selective and maintain a balanced approach amid ongoing currency volatility and mixed global cues. Large-cap exposure remains preferable, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should avoid chasing stocks facing negative news flow in anticipation of a rebound and wait for clear signs of stability before taking fresh exposure."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,114.22 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,868.94 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs pulled out Rs 17,955 crore from Indian equities in the first two weeks of December 2025.

It would be difficult for the FIIs to sell continuously and maintain a high short position in the market in the context of healthy SIP inflows, particularly when the economy is doing well and the prospects for earnings growth are improving, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

"It is important to understand that rupee depreciation, sustained FII selling, delay in the finalisation of US-India trade deal and the ongoing AI trade are all temporary drags on the markets. he most important factor that will dictate the direction of the market is the earnings growth, and this looks promising for FY27," he adds.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook

25,850/84,500 and 25,700/84,100 would act as key support levels for positional traders. As long as the market is trading above these levels, the positive sentiment is likely to continue, said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities. "On the higher side, the index could move up to 26,150–26,200/85,400-85,600. Further upside potential may also lift it up to 26,300–26,350/85,900-86,100. On the flip side, below 25,700/84100, the uptrend could become vulnerable."

Nifty continues to trade above key moving averages, reinforcing the broader bullish undertone. Market sentiment is expected to remain constructive and upward-biased. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 26,200, followed by 26,400 and 26,500, said Choice Broking.

"On the downside, support is seen at 25,900 and then 25,800, with a break below 25,700 likely to attract additional selling pressure. Given the current market structure, a buy-on-dips strategy remains appropriate, though traders should maintain strict stop-losses due to prevailing volatility," it added.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank has formed a Doji candle highlighting consolidation around the 20 days EMA amid stock specific action. It is seen consolidating and forming a base in the range of 58,500-60,100 on expected lines, said Bajaj Broking.

"We expect the index to extend the current consolidation in the coming sessions. Key short-term support is placed at 58,200-58,600 levels being the confluence of the recent low and the major breakout area. On the higher side a follow through strength above 59,500 will open further upside towards the all-time high of 60100 in the coming weeks," it said.

The 59,700–59,800 zone will remain a key hurdle for Nifty Bank. A sustained breakout above 59,800 could pave the way for a sharp rally toward 60,500, and if momentum strengthens further, it may even test the 61,000 mark, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 58,800–58,700 range, and a decisive break below this zone could open the door for additional downside pressure."