Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 119 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices were staring at a gap-up opening on Monday on the back of slew of positive cues from the global markets. The fall in crude oil below $60 mark and buying of FIIs for the last 12 sessions is set to support the Dalal Street sentiments. Also, strong rupee and mild US dollar also bodes well for the domestic stocks.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 118.80 points, or 0.48 per cent, higher at 24,518.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks had a muted open amid holidays in some of the biggest markets including Japan, China and Hong Kong. South Korea was marginally up, Australia and New Zealand edged lower.

Wall Street rallied on Friday as investor risk appetite was strengthened by a strong employment report and signs China is open to tariff negotiations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.39 per cent to 41,317.43, the S&P 500 gained 1.47 per cent to 5,686.63 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.51 per cent to 17,977.73.

The coming week is crucial, packed with key domestic and global triggers. With developments regarding tariff and geopolitical tensions with Pakistan will still remain on the radar, said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking. "The Fed Interest Rate Decision is due later this week, where they would be discussing the future rate cut path," he said.

The dollar was struggling to hold its ground on Monday even as concerns about a US recession eased just a little, while investors awaited clarity on Sino-US trade relations. The dollar index dipped 0.2 per cent to 99.857. Indian rupee is likely to hold a slightly positive bias this week amid cues from the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

Domestic markets are expected to remain cautious in the near term amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments. "Globally, easing trade tensions between the US and China, coupled with a weakening US dollar, are seen as medium-term positives for emerging markets such as India," he said.

Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday as OPEC+ is set to further speed up oil output hikes, spurring concerns about more supply. Brent crude futures dropped $2.04 a barrel, or 3.33 per cent, to $59.25 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $56.19 a barrel, down $2.10, or 3.60 per cent.

Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group said that a combination of robust fundamentals, favorable policy signals, and constructive technical indicators kept market sentiment on a strong footing. "A buy-on-dips approach is considered favorable though caution is advised with potential market volatility," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,290.49 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,290.49 crore. FIIs turned buyers, having bought equity for Rs 3,243 crore in April 2025 so far.

FPI flows to date in April 2025 were negative for all key emerging markets, Except India, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "Optimism in domestic markets was tempered by muted management commentary earnings season, even as companies delivered a modest beat versus muted expectations so far. FPI flows are expected to remain volatile."

Nifty Outlook
Nifty is trading in a narrow consolidation band between 24,500 and 24,000 levels. The index’s inability to sustain above 24,500 suggests selling pressure emerging from supply zones, said Choice Broking. "A decisive close above 24,500 could open up further upside towards 24,800 and eventually the psychological 25,000 mark. Till then, Nifty is expected to trade with a sideways bias. ," it said.

Amol Athawale, VP- Technical Research at Kotak Securities believes that 24,200/79,900 would act as a sacrosanct support zone for trend-following traders. Above this level, the market could continue its positive momentum up to 24,600–24,800/81,000-81,700. "On the flip side, below 24,200/79,900, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Falling below this level, the chances of hitting the 200-day SMA or 24,050/79,500 would increase," he said.

Nifty Bank outlook
Bajaj Broking expects Nifty Bank to extend the consolidation in the range of 54,000-56,000, thus working off the overbought conditions created by the recent sharp rally. "Only a sustained move above the recent high of 56,098 could trigger further upside toward the 56,800 levels in the coming weeks. On the downside, key support is seen between 54,000-53,500," it said.

Bank Nifty has been trading in a boxed zone between 54,000 and 56,000 recently. This channel is now acting like a pressure cooker, ready to pop — but only once a breakout/breakdown happens, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.  "Price has continuously hit a ceiling around the 55,800–56,000 range, hinting that bullish power is waning."