Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 447 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are set for a solid start for the last trading session of the week in this truncated week. However, global cues remain sluggish even as the US President Donald Trump has announced a pause on the reciprocal tariffs for 90-days except China. The Indian markets will also react to Q4 results of TCS, which were mostly in line.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 447.35 points or 1.99 per cent down, at 22,927, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian stocks were trading lower in early trade on Friday, tracking Wall Street's sharp losses amid worries over uncertainty about the trade war's potential economic fallout.
 

"We believe that with trigger Event of April 2 Tariff announcement and subsequent Trump Volte-Face, the India markets are at lower end of market bottom and despite the pause and associated negotiations; markets should stabilize and start looking up," said Choice Broking. "We believe that among the EMs, India enjoys the best investment metrics."
 

Weakening global macro, substantial miss on impending earnings, hardened China stance and associated dumping and Trump tantrums are the monitorable risks; which have been already put under microscope in the last 1 week, it added. It can be a key beneficiary of the emboldened China plus One strategy, said Choice.
 

Japan led the laggards in Asia Pacific region as Nikkei tumbled nearly 5 per cent. Australia's ASX 200 and New Zealand's DJ declined 1.5 per cent each. South Korea's KOSPI was down one a per cent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed half a per cent each in the early trade.

The US stocks dropped on Thursday as investors remained skittish over Trump's move to temporarily lower tariffs on many countries. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,014.79 points, or 2.50 per cent, to 39,593.66, the S&P 500 fell 188.85 points, or 3.46 per cent, to 5,268.05 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 737.66 points, or 4.31 per cent, to 16,387.31.

The dollar slumped on Friday as waning confidence in the US economy prompted investors to ditch US assets to the benefit of safe havens including gold. The dollar index sagged 1.2 per cent, taking it below the 100 level for the first time since July 2023. The yellow metal recorded a new all-time peak, jumping 1.4 per cent to an unprecedented $3,219.23 per ounce.

Oil prices fell on Friday and were set to drop for a second week on concerns prolonged trade war between the United States and China, the world's largest economies, will crush crude consumption as their dispute curtails economic growth. Brent futures fell 31 cents, 0.5 per cent, to $63.02, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 36 cents, or 0.6 per cent, to $59.71.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 4,358.02 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,976.66 crore.
 

This Friday morning, traders are gearing up for extreme volatility as markets react to the latest developments. Gift Nifty anticipates a substantial 453-point gap-up opening for the benchmark Nifty, said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities.
 

"The focal point remains the ongoing tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and China, driving sentiment across global equity markets. Broader market trends indicating a positive start tempered by potential spikes in volatility," he said.

Nifty Outlook
Nifty continues to trade below the upper band of the falling channel and the 21-day EMA, indicating short-term weakness and resistance near 22,500, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "The trend is expected to stay weak below 22,500, with a breakout potentially driving the index to 22,750–22,800. Failure to cross 22,500 may drag it down toward 22,000."

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities said that Nifty formed a small inside body candle on daily charts, which indicates indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears. The current market texture is non-directional; traders may be waiting for a breakout in either direction.

"For day traders, 22,350/73,650 would act as a key support zone, while 22,500/74,200 could be the key breakout level for the bulls. If the market falls below 22,350/73,650, it could retest levels of 22,250-22,200/73,300-73,000, while a dismissal of 22,500/74,200 could push the market towards 22,650-22,700/74,500-74,700," it added,

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a small bear candle with a long lower shadow signaling consolidation with stock specific action. It has immediate resistance at 51,000 levels failure to move above the same will signal consolidation in the range of 49,000-51,000, said Bajaj Broking. "Sustaining above 51,000 levels will lead to pullback towards 51,500 and 52,100 levels in the coming sessions," it said.