'Markets want to make money': Analyst warns of oil rally and safe haven rush after US-Iran strikes

Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, Robin Brooks says markets will waste no time debating the morality or legality of US strikes on Iran when trading resumes on March 2. The only focus, he argues, will be positioning for profit. 

Follow live coverage on US-Israel-Iran war here

“Markets don’t care if something’s right or wrong. They just want to make money,” Brooks wrote, adding there will be “no navel-gazing” — just one question: how will prices move and how to get ahead of it? 

He expects three immediate themes to drive price action. 

First, oil is likely to spike, prompting a sharp divide between winners and losers. Commodity exporters should rally, while energy importers come under pressure. Brooks pointed to the aftermath of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when Brazil’s real surged 18% in the first quarter as investors rewarded large commodity exporters. He expects a similar pattern now — with currencies such as the Brazilian real, South African rand, Chilean peso, Colombian peso and Mexican peso gaining, while energy importers including Turkey, India, Japan and South Korea facing selling pressure. 

The key difference this time, he notes, is Russia: higher oil prices would bolster the rouble rather than hurt it. 

Brooks highlights how, in early 2022, commodity exporters outperformed sharply as oil and gold climbed, while broader equities such as the S&P 500 retreated. Markets began pricing in the invasion even before Russian troops crossed the border — a reminder that positioning often precedes headlines. 

Second, trade linkages matter. Using IMF direction-of-trade data, Brooks notes that Iran’s top exporters are the UAE, China, Turkey, the EU and India. While Iran is a small economy, countries with meaningful export exposure could face marginal pressure. Turkey, already vulnerable as a large energy importer, stands out. 

Third, the “debasement trade” — a flight to hard assets — should intensify. Brooks says this theme has two drivers: loose fiscal policy that pushes investors toward safe havens, and geopolitical shocks. Gold prices, for instance, jumped after reciprocal tariffs were announced in April 2025 and again during tensions over Greenland in January. 

With war risk back on the table, Brooks expects precious metals and traditional safe-haven currencies to “take off again” when markets reopen.