Suzlon, BHEL, Adani Power, Waaree, Adani Green, Tata Power: Check fresh ratings & targets

JM Financial has said India’s power demand may not have hit its peak for the season yet, despite daily peak demand touching a record 271GW during solar hours and 252GW during non-solar hours on 21 May. The brokerage said demand later eased to 248GW and 246GW on 4 June, but rose again to more than 260GW during solar hours and 252GW during non-solar hours in June, pointing to the possibility of another phase of intense demand in August-September 2026 as El Niño conditions strengthen.

According to JM Financial, power demand is more closely linked to wet-bulb temperature, which combines heat and humidity, than to dry-bulb temperature. It said a rise in wet-bulb temperature sharply increases cooling load. Drawing on the 2023 El Niño, the brokerage said the weather pattern had pushed peak demand to September 2023, 9 per cent above the May 2023 level, and showed that El Niño not only lifts peak demand but also extends the high-demand season.

JM Financial said May saw extreme conditions, with peak demand at 271GW/252GW on 21 May 2026, up 23 per cent and 17 per cent year-on-year for day and night, alongside a 2.6GW non-solar deficit. It added that media reports, anecdotes and Google Trends pointed to several outages.

In June 2026, energy met rose to a record 167 billion units, up 11.6 per cent year-on-year and above the previous high of 164 billion units in May. However, day and night peak demand moderated to 265GW on 27 June and 252GW on 10 June. JM Financial said June was more consistent than May, with the average night peak at 244GW against 234GW in May.

The brokerage said El Niño conditions from mid-July could bring below-normal rainfall and higher daytime and night-time temperatures, repeating the 2023 pattern when higher humidity lifted wet-bulb temperature and prolonged cooling demand beyond May and June.

It noted that FY24 power demand peaked in September at 243GW, against the usual May-June level of 224GW. For 2026, JM Financial estimated non-solar peak demand could reach 260-265GW from mid-July to end-August, with shortages likely to widen.

On supply, JM Financial said wind generation is likely to weaken seasonally in July-September, with peak wind supply falling from 15-18GW to about 10GW by August-September. Hydro generation also appears constrained, with reservoir energy content down 50 per cent year-on-year, while thermal capacity already on stream is operating at more than 90 per cent plant load factor. Gas, it said, can offer only modest support for incremental peak demand.

JM Financial said the S&P BSE Power Index has underperformed broader indices including the S&P 500 and Nifty 50 over the past month on expectations that FY27 power demand may have peaked, but the brokerage disagrees. It cited the August-September 2023 El Niño period, when record demand of 240GW helped the Power Index outperform the Sensex and Nifty by 7 per cent.

JM Financial revised its pecking order to Adani Power (Target Price: Rs 253), NTPC (Target Price: Rs 411), BHEL (Target Price: Rs 481), Tata Power (Target Price: Rs 450) and Emmvee (Target Price: Rs 402). It upgraded Adani Power, Adani Energy Solutions (Target Price: Rs 1,968) and JSW Energy (Target Price: Rs 642) to 'buy' rating.

It also upgraded Torrent Power to 'add' (Target Price: Rs 1,515), SJVN to 'reduce' (Target Price: Rs 67) and Vikram Solar to 'add' (Target Price: Rs 219). On the other hand, it has downgraded Power Grid to 'add' (Target Price: Rs 310), NHPC to 'reduce' (Target Price: Rs 80) and ACME Solar to 'reduce' (Target Price: Rs 367).

However, it has kept ratings unchanged on NTPC, Coal India (Target Price: Rs 253), Adani Green (Target Price: Rs 1,622), Tata Power, CESC (Target Price: Rs 207), IEX (Target Price: Rs 253), BHEL, Suzlon Energy (Target Price: Rs 64), Inox Wind (Target Price: Rs 92), Waaree Energies (Target Price: Rs 3,296), Premier Energies (Target Price: Rs 1,324) and Emmvee Photovoltaic.