Tata Motors PV, Ather Energy, Hyundai, M&M: Share price targets ahead of Q2 results

Nomura expects Ather Energy Ltd, TVS Motor Company Ltd and Eicher Motors Ltd to beat Street estimates for the September quarter. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd and Ashok Leyland Ltd, however, could miss Bloomberg estimates, the brokerage said in its latest auto sector note.

In Q2FY27, domestic vehicle volumes grew strongly across most segments. Medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs) recorded the highest growth at 34 per cent YoY, followed by passenger vehicles (PVs) at 30 per cent, light commercial vehicles (LCVs) at 23 per cent and two-wheelers (2Ws) at 14 per cent. Tractor volumes, however, declined 5 per cent YoY.

Nomura said the more significant trend was the continued acceleration in EV adoption, with EV penetration for PVs above 7 per cent and for 2Ws above 11 per cent. Nomura believes this trend should sustain through 2HFY27F, with EV penetration continuing to rise across PVs and 2Ws.

Top auto stock picks, target prices

In 2HFY27F and FY28F, companies with relatively high EV exposure, competitive products and established EV technology should be better placed to grow well ahead of the industry, Nomura said as it noted that incumbents with a predominantly ICE-led portfolio could face increasing market share pressure as the mix shifts.

Among OEMs, Nomura maintained Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd and Ather Energy Ltd as its top picks in PVs and 2Ws, respectively. It expects Ather to report a slight QoQ margin improvement despite steep cost pressure. Mahindra & Mahindra's Auto EBIT (BEV+ICE) is likely to have grown 32 per cent YoY, it said.

Nomura also maintains its 'Buy' ratings on Hyundai Motor India Ltd and TVS Motor Company Ltd. Among suppliers, it prefers Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd and Uno Minda Ltd, both of which carry a Buy rating.

The foreign brokerage suggested targets of Rs 1,926 on Ather Energy, Rs 2,498 on Hyundai Motor India, Rs 4,875 for M&M and Rs 4,594 for TVS Motor. 

Commodity inflation

Commodity cost inflation remains the key near-term headwind, in Nomura's view. Prices of key commodities and metals have remained elevated, and the full impact is yet to flow through to OEMs. The brokerage expects this to have kept margins under pressure in Q2FY27F, although the impact should vary across segments.

Margins for CVs and tractors are likely to see a higher QoQ impact in Q2FY27F. Nomura believes 2Ws will largely pass on the pressures, whereas PV OEMs may continue to face margin pressure given higher competitive intensity. The brokerage expects the margin trajectory to improve as price hikes catch up with the commodity cycle.