Tata Motors shares: Why this Tata stock fell today; worth buying now? 

Shares of Tata Motors Ltd settled 3 per cent lower on Monday, as revenue missed analyst estimates as average selling price was hurt by fulfilment of export orders. Despite this, the stock received at least 20 'Buy' calls and nil 'Sell' recommendation, with Bloomberg consensus target at Rs 510, hinting at 32 per cent potential upside.

UBS said Tata Motors' Ebitda came in 1 per cent ahead of its estimate, while margins were 20 basis points (bps) above expectations despite elevated commodity costs. The management, it said, remains positive on the demand outlook, expecting the industry to grow at a high-single-digit to low-double-digit rate for the quarter. Commentary on exports was also encouraging, with traction improving across markets beyond Indonesia, it said.

"While management expects commodity cost pressures to persist in Q3, the company has implemented price hikes to partly mitigate the impact. Overall, we raise our FY27 earnings estimate by 4 per cent, factoring in strong demand momentum while incorporating elevated commodity costs into our assumptions. We also raise our FY28 and FY29 earnings estimates by 5 per cent each. We maintain our Buy rating with a revised target of Rs 645 and continue to prefer the CV space as a whole," UBS said.

Tata Motors shares declined 3.02 per cent to eventually settle at Rs 384.04 on NSE.

Truck cycle recovery has surprised positively, with Q2 volume growth was strong at 43 per cent YoY and demand momentum is holding up in October as well.

"Underlying fundamentals on fleet utilization, truck rentals & operator profitability remain in good shape after initial blip at start of Q2. Supply chain constraints are being resolved to cater to demand in H2. Notably, exports are witnessing a significant jump in F27-28 led by Indonesia order deliveries (70K in total for LCVs). Interest rates & fuel inflation are key risk to monitor," BofA Securities said while a target of Rs 515 on the stock.

ICICI Securities said IVECO acquisition is on track for completion by Q3. The domestic brokerage has have reduced its Ebitda margin estimates by 20-50bps for FY27-29 owing to surging cost inflation. "Maintain ADD, based on a revised target of Rs 450 from Rs 465 earlier, valuing the stock at 12 times Sep’28E EV/Ebitda," it said.

Meanwhile, Nuvama said TMCV is bolstering its EV presence with a broadening product pipeline spanning Ace and Intra in SCVs and multiple models across the truck range up to 55T.

"EV adoption is gaining traction on favourable TCO, with SCV PU penetration at 12 per cent and expected to reach 20 per cent by Q4FY27. EV bus and truck adoption is gaining traction with government support and increasing customer acceptance," it said.

This brokerage retained its ‘Buy’ with a target of Rs 480/share (earlier Rs 525/share), based on 13x Sep-28E EV/Ebitda (earlier 14x Mar-28E) for core business and Iveco/Tata Capital value at Rs 103/share," it said.