TCS Q4 results, dividend on April 9: Earnings preview, target prices, commentary to watch

K Krithivasan-led Tata Consultancy Services Ltd is scheduled to report its March quarter results on April 9, Thursday. Alongside the earnings, the board of India’s largest IT exporter will also consider a final dividend payout for the financial year 2025-26.

The Tata group stock has plunged 24 per cent so far in 2026, and strong deal wins and margin performance, if delivered, could be key to a recovery in the shares, which remain weighed down by the GenAI narrative. 

A couple of brokerages expect TCS to lead revenue growth among Tier-1 IT players. Kotak Institutional Equities said TCS share price reflects low growth expectations. Ahead of Q4 results, it suggested a fair value of Rs 3,090 for the Mumbai-headquartered firm.

"We forecast 1.2 per cent growth in CC terms, contributed by 0.8 per cent on organic basis and 40 bps contribution from Coastal cloud acquisition. We expect international business to grow faster and believe that India business will decline marginally. We expect stable EBIT margin. Headwind of wage revision and Coastal cloud acquisition will likely be offset by rupee depreciation," Kotak said. 

Deal wins are seen at $9-10 billion, down on YoY comparison. Kotak sees Q4 profit rising 7.4 per cent YoY to Rs 14,058 crore on 9.2 per cent rise in sales at Rs 70,434 crore. Ebit margin is seen at 25.3 per cent, up 108 basis points YoY. 

HDFC Institutional Equities, which has an 'Add' rating and target of Rs 3,000 on TCS, said it sees the Tata group firm reporting total contract value (TCV) of $8-10 billion. This broking firm sees TCS Q4 net profit rising 10.7 per cent YoY to Rs 13,528 crore on 7.9 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 69,563 crore. Ebit margin is seen at 25.2 per cent.

Nuvama, which anticipated Q4 profit at Rs 13,916.20 crore, said margins are likely to remain flat QoQ led by forex tailwinds, partly offset by reinvestments and higher variable pay provisioning. All eyes would be on the employee restructuring update, it said.

"Client budgets are stable, and we expect deal bookings to be around $9 billion (in line with the past three-quarter average run-rate of $9.5 billion). We expect the EBIT margin to be flat QoQ, as the company is likely to invest benefits from INR depreciation into sales, marketing and AI capability building. We expect employee restructuring charges (reported below EBIT) in Q4FY26E to be less than those incurred in Q3FY26," ICICI Securities said.

While TCS has signed its first client for AI data centre, the timeline for realising revenue from this business is still awaited.'

ICICI Securities said it awaits the management commentary on how client budgets for 2026 are shaping up, how GenAI deals and revenue are scaling, and how pricing models are changing.

Besides, it would seek commentary on the deflationary impact of sharing AI productivity gains with clients; any impact on decision making or the elongation of the pipeline-to-TCV conversion as clients implement large-scale AI programs; and potential second-order impact from the ongoing West Asia crisis. An update on BSNL PO closure timelines and AI data centre business will also be noteworthy.