Top 15 stock picks for July: Axis Securities eyes up to 42% upside in Varun Beverages, Lupin, SBI and more

Axis Securities has unveiled its "Top Picks for July 2025" report, featuring 15 high-conviction stocks across large, mid and small-cap categories. These selections are based on improving domestic macroeconomic conditions, robust earnings expectations for FY26, and a broad-based market recovery since March 2025.

The brokerage sees strong upside potential across sectors, with Varun Beverages topping the list with a projected return of 42 per cent, followed by Lupin with 29 per cent and State Bank of India (SBI) with 25 per cent. Other notable mentions include Colgate-Palmolive India, APL Apollo Tubes, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti Airtel and Max Healthcare.

Axis noted that its Top Picks Basket has delivered a 9.7 per cent return over the last three months, outperforming the Nifty 50's 8.5 per cent. Since inception in May 2020, the basket has clocked an impressive 336 per cent return, far exceeding the Nifty 50's 175 per cent over the same period.

The report highlights a constructive outlook for FY26, driven by factors like a 100 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), strong government capex, consumption-boosting policy measures and improved trade sentiment. The broking firm expects India's macroeconomic stability and policy support to act as key tailwinds for earnings growth and stock performance.

While Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank are expected to deliver 12 per cent upside, Axis Securities recently added Bajaj Finance to its list, replacing ICICI Bank, indicating a preference shift toward interest-rate sensitive plays.

The list of top picks also features Shriram Finance, Avenue Supermarts, Kalpataru Projects, Prestige Estates and Sansera Engineering.

Axis Securities maintains its March 2026 Nifty target at 26,300, with potential to hit 27,600 in a bull case. The firm emphasises stock selection and sector rotation as critical in a market where broad valuation rerating may be limited.