Waaree Energies hit 6-week low over US duty evasion probe; analysts see up to 46% rise

Shares of Waaree Energies plunged nearly 8 per cent during the trading session on Friday amid the reports that US customs officials were investigating whether Indian solar companies sidestepped US tariffs on Chinese-made cells and panels by labeling them as made in India.

The US is reported to be investigating charges on India's largest manufacturer of solar panels for evading anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar cells. The US Customs and Border Protection has started a formal probe of Waaree and Waaree Solar Americas Inc. There was reasonable suspicion, the agency in its memo.

The exchange sought clarification from Waaree Energies during the session Friday regarding the matter. In its clarification Waaree Energies stated that it has in the past co-operated with the US investigations and will continue to co-operate in ongoing investigations. "We are responsible corporate citizens in every country we operate in and we abide by all applicable local laws, and regulations."

Shares of Waaree Energies plunged 7.65 per cent on Friday to Rs 3182.40, with its market capitalization barely holding Rs 90,000 crore mark. The stock had settled at Rs 3,446.25 in the previous trading session on Thursday. The stock is down 18 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 3,864.40 hit on September 12, 2025. The stock has erased its gains of nearly six weeks.

Listed in October 2024 after raising Rs 4,321.44 crore via IPO, Waaree Energies has attracted fresh interest from brokerage firms recently. They see up to 46 per cent upside in the counter, which already has jumped more than 100 per cent from its issue price of Rs 1,503.

Waaree is a market leader with 16.7GW module and 5.4GW cell capacities and aims to expand to respectively 25.7GW and 15.4GW by FY27. It is transitioning to a fully integrated player through backward integration into 10GW wafer-ingots and diversification into BESS, green hydrogen and inverters. A record 25GW order book ensures strong revenue assurance and execution pipeline, said Anand Rathi.

Supported by sectoral tailwinds, Waaree, with a Rs 15,000 crore expansion plan, diversified order book, higher DCR-module mix and net cash balance sheet, is set to deliver 30/43/33% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGRs over FY25-28e; though risks from execution delays, DCR-mix shifts and US policy persist," it said, initiating coverage with a 'Buy' rating and target price of Rs 4,654.

Waaree Energies is poised to achieve a phenomenal 25.7GW module capacity and 15.4GW cell capacity by FY28, ably backed by 14GW ingot-wafer facilities, 3.2GW US modules, adjacencies in inverters, BESS, and green hydrogen. Waaree is pursuing key tech collaborations for Perovskite tandem cells, which reflects sustained R&D investment in next-gen technologies, said YES Securities.

Impressive retail reach, strong order book, and leading DCR market share together provide it with ample volume visibility, while US expansion ensures premium IRA-linked margins. Backward integration should structurally reduce import dependence and boost profitability. Notwithstanding the growing competition and oversupply risks, it is poised for a healthy uptick in volumes and value," it initiated with a 'buy' and a target price of Rs 4,610.

The solar PV maker is looking to strategically expand its manufacturing footprint in the United States, with plans to set up operations in Texas, said the company in another exchange filing. As part of its broader growth strategy, the company aims to scale its manufacturing capacity to 3 gigawatts (GW) by FY26.

Waaree's financial performance reflects the operating leverage swing, with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 71.7 per cent and EBITDA margin expansion from 3.9 per cent in FY22 to 18.8 per cent in FY25. Its total module manufacturing capacity is expected to increase to 26 GW by FY27, supported by backward integration into solar cells (15.4 GW), wafers, and ingots (10 GW), said Chola Securities.

Chola, which released its report in August, believes that Waaree is poised for strong earnings growth potential and compelling domestic and global tailwinds aided by integrated capabilities and a proven execution track record. Waaree Energies appears well positioned to be a long-term structural beneficiary of the global energy transition. It has a 'buy' rating with a target price of Rs 3,850.

Waaree Energies has posted an 89 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump in net profit to Rs 745 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, while revenue from operations grew 30 per cent YoY to Rs 4,426 crore in Q1FY26. Its Q1 consolidated solar photovoltaic modules revenue rose 22 per cent YoY to Rs 3,872 crore while the Q1 consolidated EPC contracts sales rose 161 per cent YoY to Rs 589 crore.