Why stock market is rising today: Trump, US-Iran news, oil prices & more

A day after the public holiday, stock benchmarks Sensex and Nifty climbed up to 2 per cent in Wednesday’s trade after US President Donald Trump suggested a second round of US-Iran talks within two days, likely to be hosted by Pakistan, to ease tensions in West Asia.

Brent crude plunged to $95 as supply disruption fears faded, while spot gold climbed on a softer dollar and risk-on sentiment following cooler US inflation data, analysts said.

"You should ​stay there, really, because something could be happening over the ​next two days, ​and we're more inclined to ‌go ⁠there," New York Post reported Trump as saying.
At 9.22 am, the BSE Sensex was trading at 78,158.84, up 1,311.27 points or 1.71 per cent. Nifty traded at 24,212, up 369.35 points or 1.55 per cent. Brent crude oil futures for June delivery, which plunged nearly 5 per cent on Tuesday, were trading at $95.06 in Wednesday's trade.

Globally, the Asian market rally was led by Korea's Kospi, which gained 3 per cent for the day. Japan's Nikkei, Hong Kong's Hang Seng and mainland China's Shanghai Composite gained up to 0.9 per cent. Foreign brokerage Nomura noted that a fragile cease fire between the US and Iran is improving risk sentiment. But with Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, risks to the global economy remain high.

"Hopes of resumption of US-Iran talks, Israel-Lebanon talks and crash in Brent crude by $10 dollars in two days augur well for the market in the near-term. The resilience of markets worldwide, despite the IMF’s warning about a global recession if the conflict prolongs, is an indication that the market is discounting an end to the conflict soon," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.

Vijayakumar said large cap stocks are likely to stage a smart come back in the near-term but may again face headwinds when FPIs resume selling. "The excellent performance of South Korean and Taiwanese markets and the significant market momentum there might nudge FPIs to sell again in India," he warned. 

The Wall Street rally overnight also aided sentiment. 

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities noted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2 per cent to finish its tenth consecutive positive session, the longest stretch of gains for the index since 2021. 

"This rally has successfully pushed the index back into positive territory for the year 2026 after recovering from earlier geopolitical shocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.25 per cent as the March producer price index rose only 0.5 per cent, well below the 1.1 per cent consensus estimate. Cooler inflation data, combined with a retreat in oil prices, has increased market expectations for a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve," he said.

Nomura said many net-energy importing countries in Asia are highly exposed, while European nations are somewhere in between. 

"Importantly, this emerging inflation shock is different to the post-pandemic one in that there is no pent-up demand, fiscal space is more limited and monetary policy stances are nowhere near as loose. These factors should limit the extent of headline CPI spikes feeding into core inflation but heighten the risk of demand destruction and growth shocks, should the Middle East crisis continue for much longer," it said.