Will gold continue to shine until next Dhanteras? Axis Direct shares insights

Gold has historically been a preferred investment in India, not just for short-term gains, but as a long-term store of value. According to Axis Direct, this cultural affinity is a major reason Indian households collectively hold the world's largest private gold reserves, valued at over $3 trillion. Beyond its cultural significance, gold remains a highly liquid asset, attracting both consumers and businesses.

Since last Dhanteras, gold has delivered an impressive return of nearly 60 per cent, significantly outperforming the benchmark Nifty50 index. MCX Gold, in particular, has posted exceptional returns in 2025, supported by factors such as strong central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties fueled by tariffs and rate cut expectations.

On September 17, 2025, the US Federal Reserve enacted its first rate cut of the year, lowering interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Market analysts expect two additional cuts by year-end, which is anticipated to further strengthen gold prices.

Several key factors could influence gold's trajectory over the next year. Axis Direct highlighted the risk of hyperinflation, particularly in the US, due to extensive money printing to service debt. Such scenarios could devalue currencies, prompting investors to park funds in gold. Additionally, the ongoing de-dollarisation trend by multiple central banks has historically supported rising gold prices and its acceleration could drive further gains.

Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) demand is also contributing to gold's upward momentum. Strong ETF inflows have historically pushed prices to record highs and continued demand could sustain this trend. Central banks remain active in gold accumulation, with adding over 1,180 tonnes to reserves last year. Although the pace of buying has slowed due to elevated gold prices in 2025, central banks are still projected to add around 1,000 tonnes by year-end, potentially supporting further price appreciation.

Global uncertainties, including tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, have bolstered safe-haven demand for gold. Axis Direct noted that expectations of rate cuts and ongoing market volatility are likely to benefit gold prices in the coming year.

From a technical perspective, the Comex Spot Gold monthly chart shows a strong long-term bullish trend. Prices recently surged to an all-time high of $4,180 per ounce, breaking past resistance levels at $3,446 and $2,800. Gold currently trades above major exponential moving averages, indicating strong momentum. Analysts from the brokerage suggest a bullish scenario where sustained prices above $3,800 could target $4,700–$4,800. On the downside, a fall below $3,446 could test the $3,100 support zone.

For domestic investors, Axis Direct recommends accumulating gold on dips in the Rs 1,05,000–1,15,000 range, with a potential upside target of Rs 1,45,000–1,50,000 by next Diwali.