GDP at $5 trillion or Sensex @ 1,00,000: Which landmark will come first

Fund managers and analysts on Dalal Street are gung ho on India and the Indian equity market. While some believe that the domestic economy may hit the $5 trillion landmark by 2028, others think that the benchmark equity index BSE Sensex may scale the 1,00,000 mark in another 3-4 years. At present, the 30-share index is hovering at around its all-time high level of around 62,000. On the other hand, the Indian economy was nearly $3.2 trillion in 2021.
 
While sharing his views at an event organised by PMS Bazaar, Vikas Khemani, Founder, Carnelian Capital Advisors said that the Indian GDP will be around $4-$4.5 billion by 2025. He also thinks that India is set to become a current account surplus country in the next five years.

Earlier, only four countries including Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan have turned current account surplus countries in the past 40 years.
 
“India’s cost-competitive has improved and it is on the cusp of a manufacturing boom,” Khemani said, adding one job in manufacturing creates additional 3 jobs in ancillary service.

Market veteran Sunil Singhania, Founder, Abakkus Asset Manager LLP added that he is positive about India. “Destination is very clear for the country. We can achieve $5 trillion by 2027 or 2028,” the fund manager added.

Jiten Doshi, co-founder and chief investment officer, Enam AMC added that two more terms of the Modi government and continuity of reforms will support GDP.

“Capex by big groups like Ambani and Adani show where the Indian economy is heading,” he said.

On the sidelines of the event, well-known stock market analyst Amar Ambani, Group President and Head of Institutional Equities, YES Securities said that the Sensex may hit the 1,00,000 mark in 3.5 years. He further added factors like the peaking of inflation and interest rates, stabilizing rupee and bond market will give direction to the market.

“Investors can zero in on building material theme for investment perspective,” the market watcher said.
 
On the other hand, Anil Rego, Founder and CEO, Right Horizons is bullish on PSU theme considering the present market condition. He thinks that the benchmark index may hit the 1,00,000 mark in 3-4 years.

“Technology, manufacturing, banking, real estate, infrastructure and consumption are megatrends in India,” Khemani said.

Sharing his views on the economy and stock market, Raamdeo Agrawal, Chairman of Motilal Oswal further added that India is the most resilient economy and it is also visible in the stock market. “This is a power of retail which will not allow the market to go down. There is a limited downside from here and the upside is pretty good,” he said.

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