Markets week ahead: From US GDP growth to India’s external debt data, factors that may drive Nifty, Sensex

In the coming holiday truncated week, Indian markets will remain closed on March 30 on account of Ram Navami. The upcoming week is likely to remain volatile as the march F&O series will expire on March 29 and traders will be adjusting their positions ahead of the new series. On the economic data front, investors will be eyeing infrastructure output data for the month of February to be out on March 31. Infrastructure output in India increased 7.8 per cent year-on-year in January 2023, the most in four months and following a downwardly revised 7 per cent rise in December. On the same day, traders will be looking for external debt (Q4) data, current account (Q4) data, and foreign exchange reserves data.

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Traders will also be taking some cues from the next round of G20 meetings from March 27 to April 4 to be held in Gujarat, during which three conclaves will be held in the state on a range of issues, where delegates from different countries will converge for participation. Separately, around 60 international delegates from 29 plus countries will be participating in the second G20 Tourism Working Group (TWG) meeting that is set to be held in West Bengal's Siliguri and Darjeeling from April 1 to April 3, 2023.

Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research at Emkay Wealth Management, listed some factors that may affect markets in the coming week: "The equity markets remained under stress as the transmission of the news of bank failures adversely affected the sentiment. The hike in the base rate by the Fed and Bank of England, the persistence of inflation, and therefore hard money policy has been viewed as negative for the markets in the immediate term. These factors may continue to influence market movements in the coming week too," he said.

US market data: On the global front, investors will be eyeing macro-economic reports from the world’s largest economy, the United States, starting with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on March 27, followed by Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, CB Consumer Confidence, and House Price Index, on March 28, API Crude Oil Stock Change, Pending Home Sales on March 29, US GDP Growth Rate, Initial Jobless Claims on March 30, Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on March 31.

Technical outlook: Amol Athawale, Technical Analyst (DVP) at Kotak Securities said, "Technically, a reversal formation on daily charts and a bearish candle on weekly charts are indicating further weakness from the current levels. As long as the Nifty is trading below 17100, the weak sentiment is likely to continue and below the same, the index could fall up to 16700. On the flip side, a fresh uptrend is possible only after the dismissal of 17100. Above this, the market could move up to 17250-17300.

Besides Athawale said, "For Bank Nifty, 39750 or the 200-day SMA would act as a trend decider level, below which the index could slip till 39000-38700. On the flip side, above the 200-day SMA or 39750, it could rally till the 20-day SMA or 40200-40300."