Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: Gift Nifty down 150 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are on course to open lower on Friday, tracking global stocks and elevated Brent crude prices, as hopes for a resolution to the Iran war have ebbed. US President ​Donald Trump has extended a pause on attacks against Iran's energy plants into ‌ April but an Iranian official said a US proposal for ending the war as one-sided and unfair.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 149.60 points, or 0.64 per cent, up at 23,150.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian stock markets were swept up in a global ​rout on Friday. KOSPI tanked nearly 2.5 per cent, while Nikkei was down nearly a per cent. Hang Seng was seen mostly flat.

The ongoing recovery is likely to remain fragile and contingent on further clarity around geopolitical developments. While easing crude prices and negotiation signals have provided near-term relief, any reversal in sentiment—particularly around energy infra risks—could quickly weigh on markets, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

US stocks ended lower on Thursday as investors scrambled for safety on ​fears of escalation in the US-Israeli war against Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 469.38 points, or 1.01 per cent, to 45,960.11, the S&P 500 lost 114.74 points, or 1.74 per cent, to 6,477.16 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 521.74 points, or 2.38 per cent, to 21,408.08.

Oil prices fell in early trade on Friday and were down over a volatile week after US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran to end the war were going 'very well' ​and announced he would pause attacks on the country's energy plants for 10 days. Brent ‌futures fell 0.8 per cent to $107.11 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures lost 0.88 per cent to $93.65 per barrel.

In currencies, the US dollar was ⁠bathed in ​safe-haven glow amid mounting doubts ‌of war escalation, having gained for three sessions.  Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was marginally higher at 99.93. On the other hand, gold rose 0.6 per cent to $4,405 an ounce after a nearly 3 per cent fall overnight.

Investor sentiment improved significantly but the volatility index indicated continued caution amid persistent FII outflows and weakness in the rupee, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants are advised to avoid aggressive positioning and remain selective, with a preference for stocks that are consistently outperforming within their respective sectors."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,805.37 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,429.78 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The 23,060-23,000 zone serves as a strong near term cushion against any market weakness, while the key support is anchored around 22,500. On the upside, intermediate resistance is identified near 23,500-23,600, with the critical hurdle zone at 23,780-23,800 representing a decisive barrier that must be breached to negate the prevailing lower-high formation, said Angel One.

"Overall, while bullish momentum is evident, market participants are advised to remain watchful of key technical levels, as the broader trend remains susceptible to corrective pressures until confirmed by a sustainable breach of resistance and reversal of the downtrend pattern" it said.

Nifty formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, with the low nearly equal to the opening level, indicating a strong bullish bias. This formation suggests that the session began with significant buying pressure, resulting in the open and low remaining almost identical and establishing a strong demand zone, said Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

"Immediate support for the index is seen in the 23,150–23,200 range, while resistance is placed between 23,450 and 23,500. The momentum indicator RSI currently stands at 40.12. Although early signs of recovery are visible, the RSI remains below the midpoint level of 50, and a sustained move above this level is necessary to confirm strengthening momentum," he adds.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low signaling extension of the pullback for the second session in a row after recent sharp decline. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, and rising crude oil prices which continue to weigh on overall market sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

"Going ahead a strength above 54,146 will open further pullback towards 54,800 levels in the coming sessions. It needs to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis and close above the 54,700 levels to signal a pause in the downward trend. On the downside a breach below 51,323 will open further downside towards 50,700 and 50,000," it added.

Nifty Bank has reclaimed its 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level near 53,000; however, it continues to face resistance around its 10-day SMA, suggesting overhead supply, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

"Momentum indicators show a bullish crossover in RSI along with a positive divergence, supporting the ongoing bounce. Technically, resistance is placed in the 54,500–54,700 zone, while support is seen at 53,000. Sustaining above 54,000 is crucial for further upside; otherwise, selling pressure may re-emerge," he adds.