Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 300 pts; key levels to watch

India equity benchmark indices are headed for the gap-down at the beginning of the week amid the weakness in the global markets, triggered by the AI sell-off. The negative setup is largely being driven by a sharp deterioration in global risk sentiment, and geopolitical tensions have also weighed on the sentiments of traders.

Indian equity markets are expected to remain range-bound next week amid a mix of domestic and global cues, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “Investors will closely monitor energy prices, the ongoing West Asia conflict, progress in monsoon, FIIs fund flows and the impact of RBI’s measures for further direction.”

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 300.70 points, or 1.28 per cent, up at 23,151, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian markets plunged on Monday as investors slammed the brakes on ​the red-hot AI rally, while Israeli strikes on Beirut sent oil prices and the dollar higher. KOSPI tanked 6 per cent, while Nikkei tumbled 4 per cent. Hang Seng was down 2 per cent.

Wall Street’s nine-week winning streak ended with a thud on Friday,  as red-hot technology stocks suffered their largest daily decline since ​April 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tab fell 695.15 points, or 1.35 per cent, to 50,866.78, the S&P 500 shed 200.57 points, or 2.64 per cent, to 7,383.74 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1,121.53 points, or 4.18 per cent, to 25,709.43.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
The Middle East situation also remains delicate, and Brent crude futures were up about 2.6 per cent to $95.45 a barrel on Monday. Gold edged lower, extending losses from the previous session on US rate-hike concerns, with spot gold falling 0.2 per cent to $4,321.49 per ounce. The dollar was perched near a two-month high after rate hike expectations from the US Federal Reserve.

A selective and disciplined investment approach is warranted. Focus should remain on companies with strong earnings visibility, healthy balance sheets, and exposure to domestic demand themes, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Volatility stemming from inflation data, crude oil movements, and global policy signals calls for prudent risk management and restrained leverage.”

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,776.25 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 9,133.57 crore on a net-net basis. Overseas investors pulled out nearly Rs 43,000 crore in the first week of June 2026.

FPI’s are to invest in India the AI trade which has been the principal driver of FPI outflows away from India should change, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. “There are early signs of this happening. The crash in Nasdaq is an indication that the AI bubble may burst. If the AI trade cools down and reverse that can trigger reversal of FPI outflows.”

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
Technically, a bearish candle has formed on weekly charts, and the market is still trading below short-term averages, which is largely negative. 23,200/73,500 will act as a crucial support zone for traders. As long as the market trades above this level, a pullback formation is likely to continue, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

“On the higher side, the index could bounce back to the 20 and 50-day SMA or around 23,700. For the Sensex, the level would be around 75,000. Upside potential may also push the index toward 23,900-24,000/75,500-75,800. On the flip side, a decline below 23,200/73,500 could accelerate selling pressure. If this support is broken, the market could slip to 23,000-22,900/73,000-72,800,” he adds.

Sensex faced resistance near the 74,700–74,800 zone. It slipped below the psychological 74,500 mark but managed to hold above the crucial 73,500–73,800 support zone, indicating that buyers continue to defend lower levels, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. “The formation of a long intraday decline from the day's high suggests caution at elevated levels.”

Sentiment continues to remain weak, with Nifty50 sustaining below its critical moving averages. The RSI remains weak, indicating a lack of positive momentum, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. It is likely to consolidate within the 23,300–23,500 range in the short term. A decisive breakout above 23,500 could trigger a rally towards 25,700 and higher,” he adds

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a high wave candlestick pattern with a long lower shadow indicating buying demand at lower levels from the key support area of 52,500-53,000. It is seen consolidating the broad range of 52,700-55,600. The index may extend the same and only a breakout or breakdown will signal the next directional momentum, said Bajaj Broking Research.

“Nifty Bank has key support placed at 52,500-53,000 being the confluence of the lower band of bullish gap area and the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous pullback. Resistance is placed at 55,200-55,600 levels being the confluence of the 50 days EMA and the upper band of the last three weeks consolidation. On the higher side only a breakout above 55,600 will open further upside towards 56,500 levels,.” it added.

Nifty Bank formed a high-wave candle with shadows on both sides on the daily charts, reflecting indecision, Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities “The 54,100–54,000 zone will act as immediate support. The 55,000–55,100 zone will act as a crucial hurdle. Any sustained move above 55,100 could trigger a short-covering rally towards the 55,400 level.”