Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 190 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open higher on Wednesday as improving global risk appetite continues to support sentiment. Investor confidence has been lifted by another round of robust corporate earnings. Traders  will be keenly awaiting RBI"s monetary policy decision due later today.

Indian equities may witness a gradual upmove, aided by supportive global cues, healthy domestic macroeconomic indicators, and encouraging corporate earnings, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Investors will closely track the US jobs data and the RBI's monetary policy decision, and the UK and US Composite and Services PMI, he said.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 187.40 points, or 0.76 per cent, up at 24,743, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian stock markets jumped on Wednesday as strong earnings and hopes for progress on opening the ‌Strait of Hormuz. KOSPI zoomed nearly 4.5 per cent, while Nikkei rallied over 3.35 per cent. Hang Seng ended marginally lower.

US stocks closed at higher on Tuesday, powered by ​the latest earnings from AI-related companies, while crude prices and Treasury yields ‌dropped on hopes for a deal in the Iran war. The Dow Jones ​Industrial Average rose 1.71 per cent to 54,085.88, the S&P 500 gained 1.79 per cent to 7,736.52 and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.59 per cent to 26,584.99.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Sentiment was supported by an ongoing slide in oil prices as Qatar said mediators were making progress in efforts to ‌end ⁠the US-Iran war. Brent crude eased 0.4 per cent to $79.02 a barrel, while US crude dropped 0.5 per cent to $75.35. In commodity ​markets, edge up 0.1 per cent to $4,080 an ounce. The US dollar index was little changed at ‌99.85, struggling ⁠to find direction.

Investor sentiment remained cautious as market participants adjusted to the new closing auction framework. Market participants will closely track the outcome of the RBI Monetary Policy, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We continue to advocate a 'buy-on-dips' strategy, with a preference for relatively stronger sectors, while maintaining disciplined risk management."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,446.47 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 936.14 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
24,450/78,100 and 24,500/78,000 remain strong support zones for traders, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "If the market succeeds in trading above these levels, then it could retest 24,800-24,850/78,800-79,000. On the flip side, below 24,450/78,100, selling pressure may accelerate. If it slips below this, it could fall to 24,300-24,250/77,700-77,500."

Sensex faced selling pressure after the gap-up opening and formed a bearish candlestick on the daily chart. It slipped below its 200-Day EMA, reflecting rejection near higher levels, but the short-to-medium-term trend remains positive, said  Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "Immediate support is placed at 77,700–78,000, while 78,900–79,200 remains a key resistance zone."

Immediate support for Nifty is likely to emerge in the 24,450–24,350. On the upside, the high registered during Monday's CAS session around 24750 makes the 24750–24800 zone the immediate resistance area, with a decisive move above 24,820 required to confirm a sustained breakout, said Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst -Equity & Derivatives at Angel One.

From the derivatives perspective, India VIX edged higher to 12.19, suggesting a marginal pickup in volatility while remaining at relatively comfortable levels, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank continues to trade above its short-term and long-term moving averages from a technical perspective, reflecting an underlying positive trend. However, momentum indicators and oscillators are currently signalling a sideways bias, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction in the near term, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going forward, the 58,200-58,300 zone will act as an important resistance area for the index. A sustained move above 58,300 could trigger a fresh upswing towards 58,800, followed by 59,200 in the short term. On the downside, the 57,400-57,300 zone is expected to serve as a crucial support band. The broader positive structure is likely to remain intact," he adds.

Bank Nifty has taken support near its 200-DMA, indicating that the broader undertone is gradually turning bullish. It is trading above its short-term moving averages, while RSI has shown signs of improving momentum after breaking its falling trendline, said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

"Immediate support is placed at 57,450, aligned with the 200 DMA, whereas the 58,000–58,100 zone remains the first hurdle, followed by resistance at 58,400. A buy-on-dips strategy remains favorable as long as support holds, although RBI's monetary policy announcement could trigger heightened volatility in the upcoming session," he said.