Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 60 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices set to open higher on Tuesday, extending a four-session rally on positive pre-earnings corporate updates and signs foreign investors were returning as buyers. The rally was also aided by Brent crude holding near $72, faster progress in monsoon rains and early signs that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were turning buyers after a prolonged selling streak.

Indian equity markets are likely to gradually move higher, supported by stable crude oil prices, a steady rupee, and strong pre-quarterly business updates, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "With attractive valuations and resilient domestic macro indicators supporting the market, stock- and sector-specific action is likely to increase as the earnings season unfolds."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 60.10 points, or 0.25 per cent, up at 24,543, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Asian stocks drifted lower on Tuesday. KOSPI crashed more than 6 per cent, while Nikkei dropped more than a per cent. Hang Seng was edged lower.

US stocks ended sharply higher on Monday as investors bought shares in companies related to artificial intelligence that ‌are expected to drive a strong second-quarter earnings season. The S&P 500 climbed 0.72 per cent to ‌end the ⁠session at 7,537.43. The Nasdaq gained 1.12 per cent to 26,121.16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29 per cent to 53,055.91.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Oil edged higher, but gains were limited. US crude rose 0.54 per cent to $68.92 a barrel and Brent rose to $72.34 per barrel, up 0.49 per cent on the day. In commodity markets, gold lost 0.49 per cent to $4,143.59 an ounce and silver fell almost 1 per cent to $61.47 an ounce. The US dollar shook as Fed rate hike bets receded as the dollar index rose 0.03 per cent to 100.89.

Continued softness in Brent crude prices, easing concerns over global interest rates and improving monsoon progress supported investor confidence, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "The 'buy-on-dips' strategy may remain favourable. We recommend focusing on relatively stronger stocks, while maintaining disciplined risk and position management," he said.
 

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,791.42 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 243.03 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
The market has formed a bullish candle on daily charts and it is holding a higher high higher low series formation on intraday charts, which supports a further uptrend from the current levels. For day traders now, 24,350/78,000 would be a crucial level, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"As long as the market trades above this level, positive momentum is likely to continue. On the higher side, it could move up to 24,500–24,600/78,500-78,800. On the flip side, below 24,350/78,000, a quick intraday correction cannot be ruled out. If it falls below this level, the market could retest the levels of 24,200–24,250/77,500-77,300," he added.

Sensex formed a strong bullish candlestick on the daily chart, indicating sustained buying interest at lower levels. 77,600–77,800 will act as the immediate support zone for Sensex. The overall trend is likely to remain positive, with the potential to extend the rally towards 78,900–79,000 in the coming sessions. Any decisive breach below 77,600 may invite profit booking and lead to short-term consolidation, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

The Nifty remained strong throughout the session after opening on a positive note. Market sentiment remains positive, supported by the decline in the India VIX, which reflects improving investor confidence. In the short term, the Nifty may extend its gains towards the next crucial resistance at 24,800. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 24,300, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
 

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed bullish candles with a minor upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating sustained buying interest despite some profit booking at higher levels. It continues to trade comfortably above its short-term as well as long-term moving averages, both of which are trending higher, reflecting a strong underlying bullish structure, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Momentum indicators are also supporting the positive outlook. Going forward, the 58,700–58,800 zone is likely to act as a key resistance area, as the previous swing high is placed in this region. A decisive and sustained breakout above 58,800 could pave the way for a sharp upward move towards 59,400, followed by the psychologically important 60,000 mark in the near term," he added.

Nifty Bank formed a small bullish candle with a small wick, indicating consolidation near the 58 zone amid stock-specific action. A decisive move above the recent swing high of 58,700 will strengthen the bullish setup and can pave the way for an advance towards 59,200 and 60,000 in the coming weeks, said Bajaj Broking Research.

"On the downside, the index has witnessed buying interest around the 57,000–57,500 zone, with the lows of the last three weeks placed in this range, making it a crucial short-term support area. As long as this zone remains intact, the broader positive structure is expected to continue. A failure to sustain above 58,700 may keep the index consolidating within the 57,000–58,700 range," it adds.