Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 67 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark markets are set for a steady start, extending their recent recovery as a sharp rally on Wall Street and a broad rebound across Asian markets improve global risk sentiment. FIIs turning net buyers of domestic equities, despite an uncertain geopolitical backdrop, is expected to provide an additional boost to investor sentiment and reinforce confidence.

Indian equities outperformed several global indices despite a jump in crude oil prices owing to renewed optimism in traditional IT stocks, said Ankur Punj, MD & Business Head at Equirus Wealth. "The initial AI success which had triggered a massive rally in Asian indices like Kospi, Taiwan seem to have subsided over the past few weeks, resulting in a recovery in domestic IT stocks."

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 66.50 points, or 0.027 per cent, up at 24,424.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian markets rallied hard with Wall Street on Friday amid stirring hopes that the recent selloff in AI-linked assets may be running out of steam. KOSPI zoomed over 13 per cent, Nikkei surged nearly 5 per cent. Hang Seng edged lower.

Wall Street ended sharply higher on Thursday, with the technology giant gave ​a stellar forecast that eased fears about massive spending on AI infrastructure. The S&P 500 climbed 1.66 per cent to end the session ​at 7,437.63 points. The Nasdaq gained 2.78 per cent  to 25,122.18 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.19 per cent to 52,208.06 points.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Oil prices edged slightly higher as tensions in the Middle East persisted. Brent crude futures were up 0.4 per cent at $89.38 per barrel, while US crude rose 0.3 per cent to $83.84 a barrel. Spot gold was down 0.2 per cent at $4,094.28 an ounce. Dollar was defensive. The US dollar was a touch higher at 100.12 after plunging 0.8 per cent in the previous session.

Sentiment remained mixed as the US Fed kept rates unchanged but signaled a hawkish stance, boosting rate hike expectations later this year, Ajit Mishra  SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We maintain 'buy-on-dips' approach, with a preference for relatively stronger stocks across sectors while adhering to disciplined risk and position management."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,623.51 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,864.03 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
The market traded comfortably above the 20-day SMA, which is largely positive. A bullish candle on daily charts and an uptrend continuation formation on intraday charts indicate a strong possibility of further uptrend from the current levels, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For trend-following traders, now 24,200/77,500 would act as a key support zone. Above this, the uptrend wave is likely to continue. On the higher side, the rally could extend till 24,450-24,500 / 78,300-78,500. On the flip side, below 24,200/77,500, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Below this, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he said.

Sensex trades above its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day EMA, indicating that the near- to medium-term trend remains positive, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "It is still trading below the 200-Day EMA, suggesting that the broader long-term trend is yet to turn decisively bullish. The RSI has improved to 57.58, remaining above the midpoint and indicating strengthening momentum."

The underlying short-term trend of Nifty continues to be positive. After the minor consolidation movement around 24,300 levels in the next 1-2 sessions Nifty could eventually stage decisive breakout towards 24,600-24,700 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24,150, said  Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

India VIX edged marginally higher to 12.16, though it continues to remain near lower levels, suggesting volatility remains well contained despite the recent rally, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has been consolidating within the 57,330–56,672 range, indicating a phase of range-bound price action. It continues to oscillate between its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, reflecting the absence of a clear directional trend. The RSI has flattened, suggesting a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum, Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"The ADX remains flat, hinting weak trend strength and subdued volatility. The immediate resistance is placed in the 57,500-57,600 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 58,000, followed by 58,400 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 56,700-56,600 zone," he said.

Nifty Bank formed a second consecutive high wave candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling consolidation amid stock specific action around the 57,000 levels. Bank Nifty is seen consolidating in the range of 56,500-58,700. Within the consolidation immediate hurdle is placed at 57,500. Failure to surpass 57,500 levels may to keep it range-bound between 56,500–57,500, said Bajaj Broking.

"On the downside, the 56,500–56,000 zone remains a crucial support area. This region is reinforced by the confluence of the lower band of the six-week trading range, an ascending trendline, and the 52-week EMA, making it a strong demand zone. As long as the index holds above this support cluster, the broader outlook is expected to remain constructive," it added.