Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 83 points; key levels to watch

Indian markets are likely to open on a cautious note as renewed geopolitical rhetoric from the US continues to weigh on global investor sentiment. The surge in crude oil and persistent FIIs selling is adding to the weakness in the Indian rupee. Rising geopolitical uncertainty are keeping sentiment under pressure in early trade.

Indian equities are expected to trade in a broader range in the near term, as elevated crude oil prices, persistent rupee weakness, and continued volatility in foreign flows keep overall market sentiment cautious, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Markets are increasingly expected to shift focus towards global macro developments, he said.
 

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures or Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 83.40 points, or 0.35 per cent, up at 23650.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asia share markets slipped on Monday as fresh drone attacks in the Gulf pushed up oil prices and bond yields. Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped a per cent each.

US stocks retreated from artificial-intelligence-fueled record highs on Friday, as spiking crude ​prices ignited global inflation fears. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 537.29 points, or 1.07 per cent, to 49,526.17, the S&P 500 lost 92.74 points, or 1.24 per cent, to 7,408.50 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 410.08 points, or 1.54 per cent, to 26,225.15.
 

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
In forex markets, risk aversion has tended to benefit the greenback as the world's most liquid currency as the dollar index was a touch firmer at 99.393. Brent was trading up 1.2 per cent at $110.63 a barrel, while US ⁠crude climbed 1 per cent to $106.42 a barrel. In commodity ​markets, gold was flat at $4,540 an ounce, having drawn little support so far as a safe haven.

Given the prevailing environment of elevated crude oil prices, rising inflationary pressures, weakening rupee and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, participants should maintain a cautious and selective approach, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should avoid aggressive leverage and maintain strict risk management practices."
 

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,329.17 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,958.82 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs pulled out a net of Rs 27,048 crore from Indian equities in the first half of May 2026.

FPIs continue to sell and crude price remains elevated, rupee is likely to weaken further. The trend of AI companies attracting capital flows from all over the world also is continuing to the flight of capital from countries like India who are AI laggards, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
Technically, it has formed a bearish candle on weekly charts and is currently trading comfortably below short-term moving averages, which is largely negative. The short-term market outlook remains weak, but a pullback is likely to continue if it manages to trade above 23,500/75,000, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the higher side, the Nifty 50-day SMA at 23,800/75,800 will be a key level to watch. A move above 23,800/75,800 could lead to a test of the 20-day SMA or 24,000–24,100/77,000–77,300. On the downside, a fresh sell-off is possible only if the index breaks below 23,500/75,000. Below this level, it could retest 23,350/74,500," t added

Immediate resistance levels for Nifty are placed at 24,000 and 24,250. On the downside, support is seen at 23,250 and 23,000. A breakdown below the 23,000 mark could trigger further selling pressure in the near term. Considering the current market setup, traders are advised to remain disciplined and follow strict stop-loss strategies amid ongoing volatility, said Choice Broking.

"Momentum indicators such as RSI are showing recovery from oversold territory, while price action suggests Sensex is attempting to resume its broader uptrend after recent volatility. Immediate support is now placed near 74,600-74,800, followed by stronger support around 74,500. On the upside, resistance is seen near 76,200-76,000, while a decisive breakout above this zone may open the path towards 76,500 in the near term," the brokerage said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank faced stiff resistance and subsequent profit booking at higher levels pulled it back, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "The immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 53300-53200 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in ot extending its weakness towards 52800, followed by 52400 in the short term."

Bank Nifty in weekly chart formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low signalling corrective bias as it closed below the lower band of the recent consolidation range, said Bajaj Broking.

"Bias continues to remain down below last week breakdown area of 54,400-54,600 and a follow through weakness will open further downside towards 52,700-52,400 levels. On the higher side a move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,600 will signal resumption of up move and will open further upside towards 56,000-56,500," it added.