Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 213 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices may open lower on Thursday, extending the previous session's losses, as oil prices jumped on reports of fresh attacks on ships in the ​Strait of Hormuz and Iraqi waters, stoking inflation risks and ‌tempering rate-cut bets. The West Asia conflict has ‌kept ⁠investors on edge as they assess its impact on inflation and the prospect of sustained pressure on global oil supplies.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 213.10 points, or 0.89 per cent, up at 23,726, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Thursday. Shares fell in ​Asia on Thursday amid reports that more ships had been struck in the Strait of Hormuz and ‌in Iraqi waters. Nikkei dropped more than 1.5 per cent, while Hang Seng and KOSPI fell nearly a per cent each.

Indian equities are likely to remain volatile driven by developments in the West Asia conflict, sharp movements in crude oil prices and continuous foreign fund outflows, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Investor sentiments may remain fragile as geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on global risk appetite."

US stocks closed mostly lower on Wednesday as markets largely looked past a tame inflation report and mounting repercussions related to the US-Israeli war on Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 289.24 points, or 0.61 per cent, to 47,417.27, the S&P 500 lost 5.68 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 6,775.80 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 19.03 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 22,716.14.

Oil prices climbed on Thursday after Iraqi security officials said Iranian explosive-laden boats had hit two fuel oil ​tankers amid other global supply disruptions from the US-Israeli war on ‌Iran. US crude rose 7.5 per cent to $93.80 a barrel, while Brent crude futures jumped 7.7 per cent to $99.03 a barrel.

The safe-haven US dollar hovered close to its strongest levels this year on Thursday as climbing oil prices threatened to spur inflation ​and force central banks globally to adopt more hawkish policy stances. In bond markets, ​the risk of rising inflation ⁠outweighed safe-haven considerations to shove yields higher globally.

Concerns over potential disruptions to crude oil supply, rising inflationary pressures and the possible impact on economic growth kept participants cautious, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants are advised to maintain a cautious stance, keep position sizes light and focus on strict risk management while adopting a selective trading approach."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 6,267.31 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 4,965.53 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, the market slipped below 24,000/77,500, and post-breakdown, selling pressure intensified. On daily charts, it has formed a long bearish candle and is also holding a lower top formation, indicating further weakness from the current levels, said  Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"As long as the market is trading below 24,000/77,500, a weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the lower side, the market may retest the level of 23,700/76300. Further downside could continue, dragging the market till 23,600-23,550/76,000-75,800. On the flip side, above 24,000/77,500, a pullback move could extend up to 24,150/78,000," he added.

The 24,000–24,050 zone is expected to act as immediate resistance, while the 23,700–23,750 range is likely to serve as a crucial support level. The RSI currently stands at 30.11, indicating that the market is approaching oversold territory, which could result in short-term consolidation or a technical rebound, said  Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

A decisive breach below 23,800 could accelerate downside momentum toward 23,500. The index remains below its 10-DEMA, reinforcing the short-term bearish trend, while the RSI continues to trade below 40, highlighting weak momentum, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling lack of follow through to previous sessions pullback with the index falling below the 56,000 levels. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues, rising crude price and escalating geo-political tension, said Bajaj Broking.

"It reacted lower from near the 38.2 per cent retracement of its previous decline (61,680-55,527) and the bearish gap area. Going ahead index to trade with downward bias and test the current week low of 55,250 levels. A breach below 55,200 levels will lead to extension of the decline towards 54,300-54,000 levels in the coming sessions," it added.

NIfty Bank formed a large bearish candle, indicating renewed selling pressure. The immediate support is placed in the 55,400–55,300 zone, said By Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 54,900, followed by 54,500. On the upside, the zone of 56,100–56,200 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance.