Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 85 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to lower on Monday as sentiment remained gloomy after the previous week's sell-off in IT stocks, with foreign investors going back to being net sellers after five sessions of buying. The AI-anxiety is likely to persist  post the India-US trade deal optimism, with two listings today.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 84.80 points, or 0.33 per cent, down at 25,434, hinting at a weak start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian shares were quietly consolidating recent hefty gains on Monday. Nikkei and KOSPI lost up to one-third a per cent, while Hang Seng inched higher.

The S&P 500 closed barely higher on Friday, supported by cooling inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 48.95 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 49,500.93, the S&P 500 gained 3.41 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 6,836.17 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 50.48 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 22,546.67.

Yields on two-year Treasuries fell to 3.408 per cent on Friday, the lowest close since mid-2022. Futures imply a 68 per cent chance the Fed will cut in June and have 62 basis points of easing priced in for the year. The drop in yields pulled the dollar index down 0.8 per cent last week to 96.890, with most of the losses against a rebounding Japanese yen.

In commodity markets, gold eased 0.5 per cent to $5,014 an ounce, as some investors were squeezed out of leveraged positions. Oil prices were steady as investors digested a Reuters report that OPEC is leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April. Brent was flat at $67.74 a barrel, while US crude barely budged at $62.87 per barrel.

With ongoing repricing in tech stocks and concerns around AI disruption, a selective and risk-managed approach is advised. Investors should focus on quality large-caps with earnings visibility and strong domestic demand drivers, said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should expect elevated volatility, maintain disciplined stop-losses and avoid concentrated exposure."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 7,395.41 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,553.96 crore on a net-net basis. However, FPIs pumped in Rs 19,675 crore in Indian equities in the first half of February 2026.

The sentiments in the Indian market have improved significantly after the fiscally-prudent and growth-oriented 2026 Budget and the US-India trade agreement. Given the improving prospects for corporate earnings in FY27, the market valuations, particularly for large caps, are fair, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, after a promising uptrend, the market has formed a reversal pattern and formed a bearish candle on the weekly chart, which is largely negative. The intraday market texture is still on the weak side, but a fresh selloff is possible only if the market dismisses the 20-day SMA or 25,400/82,500, Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"Below this level, the market could extend the correction to 25,300/82,200. Further downside may continue, potentially dragging the index to 25150-25100/81,700-81,500. On the upside, 25,600/83,100 would act as an immediate resistance for the bulls. Above this, a pullback could continue towards the 50-day SMA, around 25,800–25,900/83,700-84,000," he said.

Nifty formed a bearish candlestick with a noticeable upper shadow, highlighting rejection near the 26,000 supply zone. This confirms strong resistance at higher levels and reinforces the ongoing consolidation phase, said Choice Broking.

"Immediate resistance is placed at 25,700. On the downside, strong support is seen at 25,300. A decisive break below 25,300 could accelerate downside momentum, while a sustained move above 25,700 may revive bullish sentiment. Given the current setup, traders should maintain a range-bound strategy with strict stop-loss discipline," it added.

Nifty has decisively closed below its 21-day and 55-day EMAs, indicating a deterioration in near-term momentum. It breached the crucial support level of 25,500, which signals increased downside risk, said Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services. Immediate support is seen around 25,300, and a decisive break below this zone could accelerate the fall toward 25,050.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

The daily RSI generated a bearish crossover for Nifty Bank, suggesting that upward momentum remains limited for now and any recovery attempt may face resistance at higher zones. Going ahead, the 200 day EMA zone of 82,450–82,350 will act as an important support zone for the index, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

A sustained breach below 82,350 could trigger further downside towards 81500 and subsequently 80,900 in the short term. On the upside, the 20 day EMA cluster at 83,200–83,300 remains the first major hurdle, and the index will need a decisive close above this band to attempt a meaningful rebound," he said.

Nifty Bank formed a small bearish candle which remained contained inside previous week price range signaling consolidation with corrective bias. Going forward, it is likely to consolidate in the range of 59500-60,800. Only a move above 60,800 levels will open upside toward the key resistance area of 61,200–61,800 in the coming sessions, said Bajaj Broking.

"The overall outlook remains positive and the current breather should be seen as buying opportunities. Immediate support is placed at 59,500-59,200 levels being the confluence of the 20- and 50-days EMA. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues," it added.