Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 45 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmarks indices may open higher on Monday after worst weekly drop in years as hopes of easing energy supply worries offered ​temporary relief to markets rattled by geopolitical tensions. Sentiment improved after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US is preparing to ​announce that countries have agreed to form a coalition to escort ships ​through the Strait of Hormuz.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 45.70 points, or 0.20 per cent, up at 23,245, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian markets were in a wary mood on Monday as hostilities in the Gulf complicated inflation outlook. Nikkei shed half a per cent, while Hang ang KOSPI were trading flat.

Market volatility is expected to persist in the near term as geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to disrupt the energy sector and push crude oil prices higher, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Market direction is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the West Asia conflict, movements in crude oil prices and the trend in foreign fund flows."

US stocks ended down on Friday as investors gauged how the war in Iran was affecting the global oil supply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 119.38 points, or 0.26 per cent, ​to 46,558.47, the S&P 500 lost 40.43 ​points, or 0.61 per cent, to 6,632.19 and ⁠the Nasdaq Composite shed 206.62 points, or 0.93 per cent, to 22,105.36.

The dollar was trading a touch lower early Monday, partly in reaction to the report that shipping might be escorted through the ⁠Strait of ​Hormuz. The dollar index eased slightly to 100.20. In commodity markets, ​gold was little changed at $5,022 an ounce, having so far gotten scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against inflation risks.

Oil ‌prices slipped on Monday, paring early gains after US President Donald Trump called on other countries to help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil and gas shipments. Oil markets were cautious as Brent rose 0.1 per cent to $103.27 a barrel, while US crude fell ​0.7 per cent to $97.99.

Amid the heightened geopolitical risks, the sustained surge in crude oil prices and continued foreign fund outflows. Investors should adopt a cautious and disciplined approach in the near term, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders may consider maintaining a defensive stance with selective exposure to sectors demonstrating relative resilience. One should prioritise risk management."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 10,716.64 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 9,977.42 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs turned aggressive sellers in Indian equities as they pulled out Rs 52,704 crore in March 2026 so far.

The weakness in global equity markets following the war in West Asia, the steady depreciation of the rupee and concerns surrounding the impact of high crude price on India’s growth and corporate earnings contributed to the concern of FPIs, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. "There should be clear indications of earnings recovery in India and this will take time."
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, the market has formed lower highs and lower lows on daily charts, and it formed a long bearish candle on weekly charts, which is largely negative, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities. "We believe that as long as the market is trading below 23,400/75,000, a weak formation is likely to continue."

The market could continue its correction wave until 22,800/73,600 on the downside. Further downward movement may also continue, potentially dragging the index to 22,600/73,000. On the other side, above 23,400/75,000, the pullback move could extend until 23,600-23,800/75,600-76,100, Athawale added.

Technically, Nifty delivered a decisive close below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from last year’s low, indicating a breakdown in the medium-term market structure and pointing toward a broader bearish trend. Overall, it has corrected nearly 12 per cent from its all-time high, highlighting a deep corrective phase in the market, said Choice Broking.

"From a levels perspective, 23,500 remains the immediate resistance, followed by 23,700 and 23,850. On the downside, 23,000 and 22,800 act as key support levels, while a break below 22,500 could accelerate further downside pressure. Traders should remain cautious and maintain strict risk management amid ongoing volatility," he added.

The 23,000 psychological mark stands as the make-or-break level, and a breakdown here could drag prices toward the 22,800 and 22,500 area, said Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services. "On the upside, 23800 and 24050 now act as stiff hurdles. Strategy remains 'sell on rise' until the index decisively reclaims 24000 level. Expect continued extreme volatility."
 

Nifty Bank outlook

The weekly RSI for Nifty Bank stands near 34.56, which is among the lowest readings seen in recent years, highlighting continued weakness and the absence of strong buying interest. Going forward, the 53,400–53,200 range is likely to serve as a crucial support zone, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"However, a decisive break below 53,200 could intensify the selling pressure and potentially push the index towards 52,500, followed by 51,800 in the near term. On the upside, any short-term bounce or relief rally may encounter stiff resistance around the 54,500–54,600 region, which is expected to act as an immediate barrier and could once again attract fresh selling," he said.

Nifty Bank has formed a sizable bearish candle  on the weekly chart with a lower high and lower low and a bearish gap above its head. It is in the process of closing at a 6-month low highlighting downward bias. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term amid uncertain global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which continue to weigh on market sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

"Technically, it is sustaining below the 53,600 level could trigger further downside towards the 52,500–51,800 zone in the coming weeks. On the upside, the 56,000 level is likely to act as an immediate resistance, and the index remaining below this mark is expected to keep the near-term bias tilted to the downside," he said.