Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 75 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open with mild gains on Tuesday, though volatility is likely to stay elevated as investors ​remain wary of the impact of higher-for-longer Brent crude ‌prices amid the prolonged Middle East war. Overseas brokerages have lowered their year-end Nifty targets on Monday, citing the impact of the surge in crude prices on growth and earnings.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 74.30 points, or 0.32 per cent, up at 23,503.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Stocks climbed in early Asian trading on Tuesday. KOSPI surged nearly 3 per cent, while Hang Seng jumped more than a per cent. Nikkei rose nearly half a per cent.

Markets will closely monitor developments in West Asia, particularly around energy and oil supply disruptions. Updates on the India–US trade agreement and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision will also remain key triggers for market direction, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Wall Street ended sharply higher on Monday, fueled by gains in AI-related stocks while oil prices retreated amid the conflict uncertainty in West Asia. The S&P 500 climbed 1.01 per cent to end the session at 6,699.38 points. The Nasdaq gained 1.22 per cent to 22,374.18 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.83 per cent to 46,946.41 points.

Oil prices rose over 2 per cent early ​on Tuesday, reversing some of the previous session's losses, on worries about supply with ‌the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut and US allies rebuffing calls to send warships to help tankers move through the vital waterway. Brent futures jumped 2.5 per cent to $102.69 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.6 per cent ​to $95.92.

The US dollar drifted on Tuesday as traders weighed developments in the Iran war. The US dollar index edged up 0.1 per cent to 99.963 after snapping a four-day streak of gains on Monday. Gold prices held steady, up 0.1 per cent at $5,011.53. Bitcoin advanced 2 per cent to $75,705.24.

The overall mood remained cautious amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated crude oil prices, which continue to raise concerns over inflation and India’s import bill, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants are advised to maintain a cautious stance, focus on stock-specific opportunities, keep position sizes light and manage risk carefully."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 9,365.52 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 12,593.36 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

A reversal formation on intraday charts and a bullish candle on daily charts indicate a pullback move is likely to continue in the near future. For day traders, 23,300/75,200 and 23,200/75,000 would act as key support zones. As long as the market is trading above these levels, the pullback formation may continue, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the higher side, 23,650/76,000 and 23,800/76,500 serve as key resistance areas for the bulls. Below 23,200/75,000, the uptrend would become vulnerable. If that level is breached, the market could retest the levels of 23,000–22,950/74,300-74,000.  The current market texture is volatile; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders," he said.

A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates counter attack by bulls from the lower supports. The underlying broader trend of Nifty remains weak and the market is still not out of the woods, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

"The bearish pattern like lower tops and bottoms is intact on the daily chart. There is a crucial overhead resistance placed around 23,500-23,600 levels and there is a higher possibility of sell on rise opportunity in the market at the hurdle. Immediate support is placed at 23,000 levels," he added.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank has formed a bullish candle with shadows in either direction signaling pullback from the oversold territory after testing the previous major lows of September 2025. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term amid uncertain global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which continue to weigh on overall market sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

"Nifty Bank rebounded from the extreme oversold territory. Hence, holding above Monday’s low can lead to some consolidation in the range of 55,800-53,250. It needs to start forming higher highs and higher lows on a sustained basis to signal a pause in the current downtrend," it added.

Nifty Bank formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow and a minor upper shadow, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. 54,900–55,000 will act as a key hurdle and a sustained move above 55,000 could extend the pullback rally towards the 55500 level. 54,000–53,900 is may serve as a crucial support, he said.