'This is no 2008-style crash': Helios Capital's Samir Arora explains why this bear market is different

Investor fears are running high as the Indian stock market continues its steep decline, but fund manager Samir Arora sees no reason to compare the current downturn to past market crashes. The Helios Capital founder dismissed parallels with the dot-com bubble of 2000 or the 2008 global financial crisis, arguing that this time, the fall is not tied to systemic excesses or economic distress.

"Why this bear market is not like 2000 and 2008 — and it is so wrong to compare with them — is because this time it is not accompanied by excess and wasteful investments in any sector, job losses, property price crashes, leverage unwinding necessity by anyone, increase in NPAs, etc.," Arora said. "This is a valuation correction of a group of companies without any underlying overall real economy harm, so it will not take time like before to stabilize and then recover."

Arora's comments come just days after veteran investor Shankar Sharma suggested that India’s stock market downturn is more severe than many realise. Days earlier, Sharma warned that India’s current bear market is “100% local” and requires a domestic solution.

"We have had four major bear markets in India since 1990: '92: Harshad. 2000: Dotcom. 2008: GFC. 2020: COVID. The market recovered fairly quickly in three except in HM mandi. Why? Because that was a local bear market. Others were global, hence, coordinated moves happened by all CBs. HM mandi lasted ~10 years. Because it was our local problem, so had to be dealt by ourselves," Sharma noted.

Sharma criticised the government’s policy response, stating, "We need to find our own bullets to come out of this. And if 0.25% rate cut & ₹800 per capita stimulus count as bullets, God save us."

His cautionary tone extended beyond domestic concerns. Speaking at the Moneycontrol Global Wealth Summit 2025 in Mumbai, he argued that India's five-year bull run is running out of steam. "If the bull has run very fast, like in the case of our small-caps, that bull is a tired bull which falls at the slightest of trouble," he said, warning that the Nifty 50 could deliver zero returns over the next four to five years from its September 2024 highs.

Sharma revealed he had tried to exit the market at its peak last year. "I tried to sell everything I could in July 2024, when markets recorded strong gains. However, I got stuck with some investments," he admitted. "I am hoping for a bull market in 2030."

The pessimism comes amid a brutal sell-off on Dalal Street. The BSE Sensex’s total market capitalisation has plunged nearly ₹25 lakh crore since September 26, 2024, while the valuation of all BSE-listed firms has shrunk by ₹92 lakh crore. Heavy foreign institutional investor (FII) selling, rising US bond yields, a steep fall in the rupee, and heated valuations have further soured sentiment.