'Trump will let markets go down through … ' - Market veteran Ajay Bagga on plausible analysis of coming Trump Pump

Market veteran Ajay Bagga, in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, pointed to what he described as "informed positions" shaping market moves, as he highlighted a thread discussing a potential "Trump Pump" scenario.

"Trump will let the markets go down through the Asian trading hours, let oil simmer up and then come up with another pivot and markets will rush like lemmings to book stop losses while someone pockets million of $$$ on informed positions taken before the PUMP," Bagga wrote in reply to a post by Javed Hassan, calling it a "good point".

"Read this post for a plausible analysis of the coming Trump Pump," he added.

Hassan's post outlined a scenario of global market moves spanning Asian and US trading hours. "See, Tokyo and Hong Kong are already humming by the time the East Coast is still nursing its coffee. Those futures pits—Dow, S&P, the whole equity complex, plus Brent and WTI on the screens—never really sleep. You've got fourteen, fifteen hours of runway before the New York bell. Plenty of time for the right hands to lean in: long the indices in Hong Kong, short the crude in Tokyo, riding the fear wave as the blockade tweet lights up every terminal from Singapore to Sydney," Hassan stated.

"Then, right on cue, before the U.S. opens, comes the pivot. Something about "there's regime change in Tehran," "we can do business," "Talks were Good," the usual art-of-the-deal baloney. Markets whip around like they've been Tasered. Oil gives back the spike, stocks rip higher. The boys in Asia unwind clean, pocket the spread," he also said.

Meanwhile, Indian equity benchmarks were trading lower in Monday's trade, in line with broader Asian weakness, as oil prices surged above the $100-per-barrel mark following reports that US-Iran peace talks failed to make meaningful progress.

Crude oil prices jumped sharply, with benchmark Brent crude futures rising 8 per cent to $103 a barrel, amid fears of prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supplies and a fragile ceasefire outlook.

On the institutional front, provisional NSE data showed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities worth Rs 672.09 crore on Friday. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also remained net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 410.05 crore. However, overseas investors have sold Indian equities worth Rs 48,905 crore so far in April 2026, indicating sustained outflows despite intermittent buying.