US immigrant population drops by 1.5 million in six months, Pew data shows

For the first time in decades, more immigrants are leaving the United States than arriving, The New York Times reported, citing a Pew Research Centre analysis of new census data. Between January and June, the foreign-born population, both lawful and unlawful residents, fell by nearly 1.5 million, dropping from 53.3 million to 51.9 million.

The Trump administration has applauded the decline, framing it as a success of its hard-line immigration policies. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social earlier this month: “Promises made. Promises kept. Negative net migration for the first time in 50 years!” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the shift is already easing pressure on public services and revitalising job markets.

The reversal follows sweeping enforcement measures. The administration has restricted asylum at the southern border, tightened visa requirements for students and skilled workers, expanded detention capacity, and introduced a self-deportation program that offers airfare and financial incentives. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is currently detaining a record 60,000 people.

Some immigrants have left voluntarily. Lillian Divina Leite, a housekeeper in North Carolina, returned to Brazil through the self-deportation app. “I thought, I haven’t done anything wrong in my life, and suddenly I could be imprisoned,” she told NYT. Advocacy groups in North Carolina and California report rising numbers of families preparing to self-deport before winter.

Experts warn the trend carries long-term risks. Jeffrey Passel, Pew’s chief demographer, described negative net migration as a “demographic certainty” so far in 2025. Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution cautioned that “a rapid decline in immigration is going to cause economic harm,” noting the U.S. depends on immigrants to offset an aging workforce.

The last period of negative migration came during the Great Depression, when up to a million Mexicans and Mexican Americans were repatriated, many under coercion. Analysts say whether the current outflow persists depends on the administration’s next steps and the outcome of legal and political challenges.

“If things are really bad, we no longer are the place where people go to do science or tech,” Watson said. “That could have generational repercussions.”