Gold hits record Rs 1.01 lakh ahead of RBI Policy — What investors should know

Gold prices in India surged to an all-time high this week, breaching the Rs 1,01,000 per 10 grams mark, supported by global cues, safe-haven buying, and expectations of monetary policy easing. This rally comes ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday, where investors are watching closely for signals on interest rates and inflation outlook.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold October futures were trading at Rs 1,01,091 per 10 grams, down slightly by Rs 113 or 0.11%, while silver September futures rose marginally by Rs 115 or 0.10% to Rs 1,12,351 per kilogram. On Monday, gold futures had closed at Rs 1,01,204, up 1.45%, and silver at Rs 1,12,236, gaining 1.79%.

Gold prices have remained range-bound for several weeks but have now broken out on the upside. Globally, gold remains just below its record high touched in April, with international spot prices currently hovering around $3,377 per troy ounce — up 41% over the past 12 months.

Analysts attribute the breakout to weak U.S. employment data, which increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This has weakened the dollar index and lowered U.S. Treasury yields, both of which are supportive of gold. As of Tuesday, the U.S. Dollar Index was trading near 98.94, down 0.16%.

“Gold hitting Rs 1,00,167 for 24 karat reflects the sustained appeal of the metal as a safe-haven asset amid heightened global uncertainties,” said Dr. Nirav Kamboj, Head of Commodities Research. “Persistent geopolitical tensions, expectations of a US Fed rate cut, and festive demand in India are all pushing prices higher.”

Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, added, “Gold hit all-time highs in domestic markets after weak U.S. employment data sparked concerns about the economy. The market is now pricing in a 94% chance of a rate cut next month.”

Meanwhile, Citi has reversed its earlier bearish stance on gold. In June, it forecasted a 25% fall in prices, but it now expects gold to trade between $3,300–$3,600 in the coming months, citing continued geopolitical risks, doubts over Fed policy credibility, and a weaker dollar.

Domestically, the festive season and a strong wedding calendar are expected to provide further support to gold demand. Retail investors, according to experts, should approach this rally with a strategy.

“While short-term corrections may occur due to profit booking, the broader outlook for gold remains bullish,” said Kamboj. “A staggered accumulation strategy during dips is ideal for long-term investors.”

Additionally, Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs — if implemented — could disrupt global trade and further fuel demand for safe-haven assets like gold. In such a scenario, gold may act as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation.

India’s central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves steadily, which adds another layer of support to the market.

As investors await RBI’s MPC outcome, gold’s trajectory will likely depend on policy signals, interest rate cues, and inflation guidance. However, with global uncertainty still high, gold’s safe-haven status continues to shine.