US-Venezuela shock puts bullion back in focus: Gold, Silver likely to open higher on Jan 5

Gold and silver prices are poised for a gap-up opening on Monday, January 5, after fresh geopolitical tensions erupted over the weekend following a US military strike on Venezuela, market experts said. The escalation has helped revive safe-haven demand for bullion, which entered 2026 after delivering its strongest annual performance in more than four decades.  

Gold surged nearly 70% in 2025 — its biggest yearly gain since 1979 — cementing its status as the standout hedge amid global uncertainty. The latest US action has brought bullion back into sharp focus, especially given Venezuela’s strategic importance in precious metals. The Latin American nation is believed to hold the largest gold reserves in South America, estimated at around 161 metric tonnes, valued at close to $22 billion at current prices.  

Strong start to 2026, volatility returns  

Gold and silver began the new year on a steady footing, as investors assessed the impact of an upcoming rebalancing of a key commodity benchmark index scheduled for next week. Prices briefly rallied on December 2, with bullion rising as much as 1.9% before paring gains during US trading hours. Silver, meanwhile, pulled back after earlier surging by up to 4%, underscoring the volatility that has carried over into the first trading days of 2026.  

With markets set to reopen after the weekend, analysts say the combination of geopolitical risk, currency moves, and cross-commodity signals could drive a sharp opening move in precious metals.  

Five key factors likely to fuel gold on Monday  

1. US attack on Venezuela: The United States launched a major military operation against Venezuela on Saturday, with President Donald Trump announcing the strike on Truth Social. Trump said Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife had been detained and taken out of the country. The development has raised fears of broader regional instability, typically supportive of gold and silver prices.  

2. Crude oil dynamics: Oil prices were largely steady in the first trading session of 2026, as expectations of oversupply offset geopolitical risks to production in parts of OPEC. Brent crude futures closed below $61 a barrel in light trading, while West Texas Intermediate finished above $57. Weakness across Middle Eastern markets, including the Dubai benchmark during Asian hours, has kept energy markets cautious — often a backdrop that channels defensive flows into bullion.  

3. Gold-silver ratio signals: After a volatile week, the gold-silver ratio climbed to around 60, having touched a low of 54 earlier. According to Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, when the ratio falls below 80, silver begins to enter an overbought zone, suggesting gold may offer relatively better risk-adjusted appeal in the near term.  

4. Structural demand from Tether: Market participants also point to growing gold purchases by non-state entities such as Tether as a supportive factor. Analysts say this reinforces a structural demand floor for gold, reducing downside risk during corrective phases and strengthening the longer-term bullish case.  

5. Weakness in the Indian rupee: For Indian investors, currency moves add another tailwind. The rupee posted its steepest annual decline since 2022 in 2025, slipping nearly 5% against the U.S. dollar despite broader dollar weakness. Analysts attribute the underperformance to sustained capital outflows, sluggish export growth, and higher hedging demand from importers. A weaker rupee typically lifts domestic gold prices, even if global rates remain range-bound.  

With bullion already coming off a historic year, the fresh geopolitical shock from Venezuela could act as a catalyst for renewed momentum. Market experts caution that volatility is likely to remain elevated, but say the balance of risks heading into Monday favors an upside gap in gold and silver as investors rush back into safe havens.