'When gold feels safest': Coinswitch founder warns investors may be chasing wrong asset again

Gold has surged to record highs, but historical data suggests the real opportunity may lie elsewhere — in equities.

While Indian families are dumping mutual funds to buy gold, Coinswitch co-founder Ashish Singhal says this may be a classic case of mistiming the market.

“Your grandmother’s gold vs your SIP. Who’s winning right now? Definitely grandma,” Singhal wrote on Linkedin, pointing to gold’s record ₹1,02,191 per 10 grams in September 2025 — a 40% jump this year. But he followed it with a sharp warning: every time the Nifty-to-Gold ratio hit these oversold levels in the past two decades, equities came roaring back.

Singhal isn’t giving advice — just history. But the numbers tell a compelling story.

The Nifty 50 has stalled around the 25,000–25,800 range in recent months, appearing sluggish compared to glittering gold. This has reinforced a behavioral trend: pausing SIPs and redirecting money into gold, seen as a safer bet amid global economic uncertainties.

But history disagrees.

Analysis shows that when the Nifty-to-Gold ratio hits long-term support levels — currently hovering near 2.3–2.65 — it often precedes powerful stock market rallies. From 2004 to 2020, every major ratio bottom led to Nifty gains of 40% to 190% in the following months. The average? A staggering 125% in just over two years.

Despite this, retail investors continue to chase gold at highs and exit equities at lows — a textbook case of "buy high, sell low," Singhal remarked.

“When gold feels safest, equities often deliver the best returns,” he noted.