The Economic Survey 2023 fiscal might peg the gross domestic product (GDP) for the next financial year somewhere between 6 and 6.8 per cent, sources told Business Today on Tuesday ahead of the Budget Session that will kickstart at 11 am. President of India Droupadi Murmu will first address both houses in a joint session, following which the Economic Survey will be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Sources said the inflation established by the Reserve Bank of India is 6.8 per cent outside the target range. The annual government survey, which portrays the state of the economy, is expected to project that the growth is seen at 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal (FY2023-24) under the baseline scenario.
The Economic Survey, compiled by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, is generally tabled a day ahead of the Union Budget presentation. The sources added that in FY23, India's GDP is expected to grow at 7 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent in FY22.
Sources added that the economic survey might project MSME credit growth at 30.5 per cent in the period between January 2022 and November 2022. The central govt capex could be pegged at 63.4 per cent in the April-November period.
The survey might highlight the state of the Indian economy vis-a-vis the global economic scenario. It is to be noted that experts across the world expect India’s growth to slow down this year due to recession fears and weaker external demand.
Earlier in the day, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that the Indian economy might grow around 6.1 per cent in 2023 as compared to 6.8 per cent in 2022 mostly due to current recession fears across the globe. It added that the growth rate of the Indian economy will bounce back to 6.8 per cent in 2024, according to its World Economic Outlook.
IMF Chief Economist and Research Department Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that the decline in India’s growth rate during 2023 is largely due to external headwinds.
Gourinchas said: “We have 6.8 per cent growth for this current fiscal year, which runs until March, and then we’re expecting some slowdown to 6.1 per cent in [the] fiscal year 2023. And that is largely driven by external factors.”
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