30-day waiver, limited impact: Why Iranian oil may not ease global supply crunch

A US decision to temporarily ease sanctions on Iranian oil is unlikely to translate into a meaningful increase in global supply, real-time data analytics firm Kpler said on Monday. 

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The firm said the 30-day waiver, aimed at cooling oil prices, may have a limited immediate impact. "Limited upside for Iranian flows," it said, noting that while the policy is designed to ease markets, supply response may remain muted.

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Kpler said China remains the dominant buyer, importing 1.57 mbd in February and 1.48 mbd in March to date. "Around 30 mb of crude in Chinese storage could be tapped by state refiners, but ongoing constraints in payments, shipping, and counterparty trust are likely to deter new buyers, keeping flows concentrated through existing channels."

The US administration, under President Donald Trump, has allowed a temporary waiver on sanctions for purchases of Iranian oil at sea, as prices have surged amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the move could bring roughly 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, offering relief to supply pressures.

Oil prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, climbing about 50% to above $100 per barrel, the highest levels since 2022, raising concerns about the impact on consumers and businesses ahead of the November midterm elections in the United States.

Iran, however, has signalled that additional supply may not be readily available. "Currently, Iran basically has no surplus crude oil left on the water or for supply in other international markets, and the US treasury secretary’s statement is solely aimed at giving hope to buyers," Iranian oil ministry spokesman Saman Ghoddoosi writes on X.