Crude's wild hour: How Trump's Iran post - and correction - swung oil markets

Global oil prices swung sharply within a short window after a social media post by US President Donald Trump suggested progress in talks with Iran, only for the message to be withdrawn, corrected, and contradicted by Tehran.

Also read: Trump orders five-day pause on Iran strikes: 'Very good conversations for complete resolution'

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, described the sequence as a rapid chain of signals that unsettled the market. "What just happened? Crude's crazy hour..."

She outlined how the initial post drove prices lower. "A Trump post on Truth Social claiming the US and Iran had been having very 'good and productive' conversations over the past 2 days hammered Brent down from ~$113 all the way down to ~$98."

The message was briefly withdrawn, adding to uncertainty, before being reposted with a correction. "Even as the market was trying to make sense of the ‘breakthrough’, the post was withdrawn, further heightening doubt and suspense. But no, it wasn't an intern error. A typo in the post was corrected, 'which' instead of the original 'witch' and it was back!"

By then, Iran had publicly rejected that there was any negotiation with the US. "But wait, by that time, Tehran had spoken, and said there were no communications happening with the US -- directly or indirectly."

Prices rebounded as the contradiction set in. "Brent clambered back up to ~$105."

In his revised post, Trump wrote: "I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East."

"Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions," he added.

Hari suggested the episode reflected a shift in positioning rather than a confirmed diplomatic breakthrough.

"Here's likely what went down -- Trump wanted to withdraw his 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face US attacks on power plants (deadline technically early morning Iran time on Tuesday). But Iran's threat to retaliate by striking power plants in the Gulf states was not a gamble he wanted to take."

She added that the framing of negotiations may have served a political purpose. "However, not wanting to be seen as backing off in the face of a threat, Trump dressed it up as negotiations going on."