After Hormuz, Iran has eyes set on another waterway: Bab el-Mandeb, gateway to the Red Sea

After choking off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is signalling it could open a second front by using its Houthi allies in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, a move that would threaten another of the world's most important maritime energy routes and sharply escalate pressure on the United States.

Having already demonstrated its ability to disrupt shipping through Hormuz, Iran is now reportedly appearing to prepare to target Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden through which Saudi oil exports and a substantial share of global shipping pass.

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A senior Yemeni official warned on Monday that the country's armed forces were prepared to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Saudi Arabia continued attacking Yemen. According to Iran's Press TV, Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of the Houthi movement Ansarullah, said the United States was encouraging Saudi Arabia to strike Yemen.

"If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock," he said.

Analysts described Bab el-Mandeb as Iran's last major strategic lever after Hormuz. Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges told Reuters that Tehran was signalling it could threaten both maritime chokepoints simultaneously, transforming the conflict from a bilateral confrontation into a challenge to the sea lanes that underpin global energy trade.

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"Now (Tehran) is escalating both near and wide. The message is that not only Hormuz, but Bab el-Mandeb, is at risk," he said.

Bab el-Mandeb has already emerged as a key vulnerability in global trade. Following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, the Iran-backed Houthis launched attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were targeting vessels linked to Israel in support of Palestinians.

The campaign forced major shipping companies to reroute vessels around southern Africa, significantly increasing transport costs, and prompted US and British airstrikes as well as a multinational naval mission to protect shipping.
Andreas Krieg of King's College London's School of Security Studies described the latest Houthi threat as "another nuclear option" for Iran after Hormuz, one that Tehran would likely employ only if it concluded that a return to all-out war had become unavoidable. He warned that intensified US strikes on Iran's critical infrastructure could prompt Tehran to use its Yemeni allies to close Bab el-Mandeb, compounding the economic disruption already caused by developments in Hormuz.

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Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center, said the Houthis retain the capability to disrupt navigation through Bab el-Mandeb but are unlikely to escalate without explicit direction from Tehran. He added that any attempt to threaten shipping through the waterway could trigger a broader military response from the United States and its partners aimed at significantly degrading the group's capabilities.

Analysts also warned of a gradual "mission creep", with each side steadily raising the stakes without direct confrontation. As the conflict expands from the Gulf to the Red Sea, the growing threat to global trade and energy supplies could increase pressure on both Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations before the world's two most critical oil chokepoints become the defining battleground of the conflict.