Bangladesh Election 2026: If BNP's Tarique Rahman wins, what changes for India?

The Bangladesh national election 2026 is more than just a vote; it’s a moment that could redefine the country's future. If the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) wins, the biggest story will be the return of Tarique Rahman. After living in London for nearly 20 years, Rahman has returned home, trading his image as a distant exile for that of a frontrunner ready to lead. He has pledged a "Bangladesh First" approach, promising to move away from the "one-power" focus of the past and clean up government corruption.

A BNP victory would also bring a major shift in India-Bangladesh relations. However, big questions remain, especially regarding the extradition of Sheikh Hasina and how to handle border security.

How BNP's win impacts India

For years, India has viewed the BNP as an antagonistic force, especially due to its alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami from 2001 to 2006. While things were tense in the past, Rahman is now pushing for a more balanced relationship based on "mutual respect" rather than suspicion.

The BNP is expected to aggressively pursue issues such as the revival of the SAARC summit as well as the extradition of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Hasina, currently staying in New Delhi, has been sentenced to death in absentia for alleged crimes against humanity by a special tribunal in Bangladesh. 

In an interview with The Indian Express, one of Rahman's closest advisors, Mahdi Amin, said that there are "great opportunities" to work together with India if the BNP comes to power. 

Amin said, "Of course, there are issues, but every issue can be an opportunity as well to forge better ties between people-to-people contacts. We would appreciate bilateral relations based on mutual trust, mutual interest — a reciprocal relation where we can serve both nations with equality, fairness and justice." 

He added that there are opportunities for both countries to work together not only within the neighbourhood but also for the "wider world".

"If we work together in trade, industry, culture, education, security, and overall, there are areas of collaboration where we can all work together while serving the interests of all nations and ensuring that mutual benefit is protected."

BNP, Tarique Rahman's position on India

His primary foreign policy shift would be to move away from the "all-or-nothing" alignment that India had under the Hasina regime. Under the "Bangladesh First" approach, he seeks a relationship with New Delhi based on mutual respect and equality instead of dependency. 

While he seeks a new phase of friendship with India, Rahman remains firm on issues such as the Teesta river water-sharing pact. 

Rahman has pledged to secure a fair share of water from the Teesta and Padma rivers, calling it a matter of national survival. He has also promised to take strong measures to curb border killings by the Border Security Force (BSF), while also leaning into a message of inclusivity. 

Tarique Rahman has publicly announced that if BNP is elected to power, Bangladesh would be a safe haven for all religious minorities, emphasising that "religion is individual, but the state belongs to everyone". 

What does BNP's manifesto say?

On February 6, the party released its 51-point manifesto, based on the principle of "Bangladesh Before All". When it comes to India, the manifesto mentioned issues including border shootings, infiltration, and the Teesta river water-sharing pact. Despite this, it committed to building relations with neighbours "based on equality, fairness, pragmatism, and mutual interest," according to Bangladeshi media reports. 

What changes for Tarique Rahman

For nearly 17 years, Rahman effectively spearheaded the BNP from exile in London with the help of intermediaries and virtual communication. This was when the party's senior leadership, including his mother and former PM Khaleda Zia, faced arrests, court cases, and restrictions back home in Dhaka. 

A win in the recently conducted polls, which seems highly likely, would allow him to shed the label of a "political fugitive" and take office as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh. Rahman has faced numerous legal battles over the last two decades, including a life sentence in absentia for the 2004 grenade attack.

After the fall of Hasina's government, the High Court overturned his convictions and acquitted him of all charges. 

For India, a BNP win means learning to work with a new version of Tarique Rahman—one who wants to prove he has evolved into a stable, reform-minded leader.