BT Explainer | What is the ‘Thucydides Trap’? Why Xi raised it during high-stakes Trump summit

At a key meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump, one phrase drew global attention: the “Thucydides Trap.” The term is often used when discussing rising tensions between the United States and China. But what does it actually mean? 

What is the Thucydides Trap? 

The “Thucydides Trap” is a theory suggesting war becomes more likely when a rising power challenges an established dominant power. It is named after ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. 

Thucydides famously said: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” 

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The idea was later popularised by political scientist Graham Allison in his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? 

The theory argues that fear, rivalry, and strategic competition between rising and ruling powers can push nations toward conflict. 

Why is it linked to China & US? 

The US has long been the world’s leading economic and military power, while China’s rapid rise has reshaped global trade, technology, and geopolitics. 

Today, Washington and Beijing are competing over: 

• Trade and tariffs 
• AI and semiconductor technology 
• Taiwan and Indo-Pacific security 
• Supply chains and rare earth minerals 
• Cybersecurity 

Many analysts view the US-China rivalry as the clearest modern example of a possible Thucydides Trap. 

Why did Xi bring it up? 

When Chinese leaders refer to the Thucydides Trap, they are usually warning against allowing strategic rivalry to turn into open confrontation. 

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By invoking the term, Xi signalled that both countries must manage tensions carefully and avoid escalation. 

China has repeatedly said that conflict between the world’s two largest economies would damage global stability and economic growth. 

Has the Thucydides trap happened before? 

Supporters of the theory point to historical rivalries that ended in war, including: 

1. Athens vs Sparta 
2. Germany vs Britain before World War I 
3. Japan vs the United States before World War II 

Critics, however, argue the theory can oversimplify global politics and risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

They also note that nuclear deterrence and deep economic ties make direct conflict less likely today. 

Why the world is watching 

The US and China together shape global trade, technology, manufacturing, and finance. Any major confrontation could disrupt markets, oil prices, semiconductor supplies, shipping routes, and regional security in Asia. 

That is why references to the “Thucydides Trap” attract worldwide attention during major diplomatic meetings. 

Can the US & China avoid it? 

That remains one of the biggest geopolitical questions of this century. Experts say avoiding conflict will depend on sustained diplomacy, military communication, economic stability, and crisis-management mechanisms. 

For now, the “Thucydides Trap” remains both a warning and a reminder of how dangerous great-power rivalry can become.