Global trade runs on the oceans: 10 maritime chokepoints that could disrupt the world economy

Around 80–90% of global trade is transported by sea, making maritime chokepoints critical pressure points for the world economy. A new MUFG report, Neptune’s Domain, highlights how disruptions across routes from Suez and Hormuz to Malacca and the South China Sea can affect trade, energy supplies and shipping costs.

The scale of dependence is enormous. Global seaborne goods loaded reached 12.1 billion metric tonnes in 2024, compared with 2.6 billion tonnes in 1970. MUFG describes maritime trade as an increasingly important part of globalisation, while warning that military conflict is shifting towards maritime theatres and vulnerable geostrategic chokepoints.

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The vulnerability is not limited to oil. The MUFG report notes that the Atlantic alone accounts for roughly 50% of global merchandise trade, while the Indian Ocean carries around 80% of global seaborne oil and is the primary transit route for more than 90% of India’s oil imports.

The impact of disruption can quickly reach freight markets. MUFG notes that the Cape of Good Hope detour has pushed container shipping costs higher, demonstrating how rerouting around a maritime risk zone can translate into higher logistics costs.

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As the report puts it, military conflict in the 21st century is increasingly shifting towards “maritime theaters and vulnerable geostrategic chokepoints.” For businesses and consumers, that means a crisis at sea can rapidly become a crisis in supply chains, energy markets and prices.