Iran war was said to be ceasing – is it now set to flare up again? A timeline

Iran war: Depending on which day of the week you are in, the Iran war is either slowing down or it is escalating. For instance, if you had checked on the updates from the war a few days ago, there was a ceasefire in place with a probability of peace talks. Cut to now: The ceasefire is hanging by a thread, with the talks having failed and Donald Trump once again threatening to bomb Iran. 

With a volatile Donald Trump at the helm, the West Asia region is steeped in uncertainty. Everyone has the same question now: Is the war that was said to be ceasing set to flare up again? 

Here’s a recap of how things shaped up and turned out in the past few days:

The ceasefire: On April 8, Trump announced a ceasefire just before his self-imposed deadline for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face the consequences. Before that he had warned that "a whole civilisation will die tonight”. "This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East," Trump wrote. Iran rejected a longer 45-day ceasefire proposal and handed its own 10-point framework. 

Pakistan steps in: Islamabad that was already serving as a mediator facilitated the ceasefire. It then invited the US and Iranian delegates for a peace talk. 

The Lebanon conundrum: On April 9, Israel attacked Lebanon leading to yet another diplomatic crisis, and throwing the possibility of a peace talk in disarray. The strikes killed 254 people in Lebanon. This triggered a crisis between Iran and Israel. Iran said Lebanon was part of the ceasefire, while the US denied it. Pakistan also stated that Lebanon was part of the ceasefire. Eventually, Israel said it would not attack Lebanon. 

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Peace talks begin: On April 11, US and Iran delegates met in Islamabad for the peace talks to end the war. Islamabad announced a 2-day holiday, and turned the Pakistani capital into a fortress as it hosted the high-profile event. 

21-hour talks: The two sides held marathon talks for 21 hours, but despite that, the talks failed to yield a positive result. As per a report in Axios, Iranian delegation believed that a resolution was near before US VP JD Vance held a press conference and blamed Iran. 

Nuclear demands: The US reportedly proposed that Iran accept a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment. Iranians countered the proposal with a shorter, ‘single digit’ period. The US also wanted Iran to remove all highly enriched uranium from the country, but Tehran instead agreed to a ‘monitored process of down-blending’.

Hormuz blockade: On April 13, after the failed talks, the US Central Command announced it will begin enforcing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports starting April 13 at 10 am ET (7:30 pm IST). The blockade will apply equally to vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas. This includes all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, CENTCOM said in a statement on social media. CENTCOM added that its forces will not interfere with the freedom of navigation for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

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Fresh bombing threats: Along with the blockade, Trump and his advisers are also considering resuming limited military strikes against Iran. A report in The Wall Street Journal stated that the options under review include a temporary blockade and a possible limited bombing campaign. While a full-scale bombing campaign is less likely due to concerns about regional instability and the president's reluctance for prolonged conflict, Trump has not ruled out targeting Iran's infrastructure, sources told the financial news site.

NATO allies turn down US: NATO allies declined to join Trump's plan to blockade Iranian ports. They stated they will only intervene once the fighting ends. NATO members including Britain and France declined to join the blockade, focusing instead on efforts to reopen the strait. The strait handles about a fifth of global oil shipment. The refusal will now only add to existing friction with Trump, who has threatened to withdraw from NATO.