'Major setback for China's strategy': Brahma Chellaney as Nepal Left parties suffer rout

Nepal's parliamentary elections have delivered a sweeping victory for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), pushing the country's two main communist parties to the margins and triggering debate over how the political shift could reshape regional geopolitics.

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Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney described the outcome as a blow to Beijing's influence in Kathmandu. He argued that years of Chinese efforts to cultivate a unified leftist bloc in Nepal have been overturned by the vote.

"Nepal's voters have swept away not only a discredited political class but also years of careful geopolitical engineering by outside powers," he wrote in a post titled: 'A Political Earthquake in Kathmandu'.

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The geostrategist said that the rout of the two main communist parties in the election is a "major setback for China's neighborhood strategy."

"For years, Beijing worked to stitch together 'leftist unity' between these two parties to secure a stable, pro-Beijing government in Kathmandu. Now, with both parties reduced to minor players, China finds its preferred communist channels of influence abruptly stranded," he wrote on X.  

RSP surges toward majority

Formed in 2022, the RSP is heading toward a two-thirds majority in Nepal's House of Representatives. The party has secured 124 seats under the direct voting system and is leading in one more constituency.

Results have been declared for 161 of the 165 directly elected seats so far. The Nepali Congress has won 17 seats, the CPN-UML eight, the Nepal Communist Party seven, and the Shram Sanskriti Party three. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party and an independent candidate have each secured one seat.

Under the proportional representation system, the RSP has secured more than 40 lakh votes, giving it the potential to add at least 40 additional seats and take its tally to roughly 164 in the 275-member parliament.

That would place the party well above the 138 seats required for a simple majority.

The outcome also clears the way for RSP's 35-year-old leader Balen Shah to become Nepal’s next prime minister. Shah defeated former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli by about 50,000 votes in the Jhapa-5 constituency. Shah is likely to become Nepal's first Madhesi Prime Minister and the youngest elected executive head in the country’s parliamentary history.

Opening for India

Chellaney said the shift could present India with an opportunity to rebuild its influence in Nepal, which has fluctuated over the past decade. "The turn in Nepal's politics could also give India an opening to regain influence in Kathmandu, if New Delhi acts wisely."

India's standing in Nepal suffered after tensions surrounding the 2015 border blockade, which followed the adoption of Nepal's new constitution. "New Delhi's standing in Nepal eroded after the Modi government's 2015 'border blockade' blunder and years of political friction that pushed many Nepali leaders to hedge by drawing closer to Beijing," Chellaney said.

He added that India would need to recalibrate its approach if it hopes to strengthen ties with the new leadership. "India now needs to replace the clumsy habits of the past with patient diplomacy and economic engagement, treating Nepal as a sovereign partner rather than taking its goodwill for granted."