Tariffs, bigger NATO contributions? Norway braces for severe reaction from Trump if he doesn’t win the Nobel Peace Prize

The Nobel Peace Prize has, since Donald Trump first claimed he was much deserving of the coveted award, attracted renewed attention. And perhaps, none have been more anxious about the Peace Prize than Norway itself. 

According to a report in The Guardian, Norwegian politicians are bracing for potential repercussions to the US-Norway relations if Trump does not win the Nobel Peace Prize. The Nobel committee had decided who would be named 2025 peace prize laureate several days before the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, negotiated under Trump's Gaza plan. 

Most experts believe it is unlikely for Trump to win the prize, thereby fearing a strong reaction for being overlooked, the report added.

Oslo must be “prepared for anything”, said leader of Norway’s Socialist Left party and its foreign policy spokesperson, Kirsti Bergstø. Bergstø told the news site that Trump has taken US to an extreme direction, and when the president is volatile and authoritarian, they need to be prepared for anything.

“The Nobel Committee is an independent body and the Norwegian government has no involvement in determining the prizes. But I’m not sure Trump knows that. We have to be prepared for anything from him,” said Bergstø. 

Trump has not only sought the Nobel Peace Prize publicly but also criticised former US President Barack Obama for being a peace prize laureate. He said Obama was a bad president. 

In July, Trump had called Norway’s finance minister and the former Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, to ask about the Nobel Peace Prize. He then told the UN that he had halted several unendable wars, and claimed that “everyone” thinks he should get the award.

Most recently, Trump said that he ended seven wars and was in the process of ending the eighth war. These, he claimed, included the India-Pakistan conflict. Meanwhile, New Delhi repeatedly denied Trump’s involvement in the ceasefire negotiations, and added that no third party was involved in the talks. 

Leader of the Green party of Norway, Arild Hermstad, said the peace prize is earned through sustained commitment, “not through social media tantrums and not from intimidation”. Kristian Berg Harpviken, the director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute said the committee act independently. 

Columnist and analyst Harald Stanghelle believes that retribution for Trump not winning the prize could come in the forms of tariffs, demands for higher NATO contributions, or declaring Norway as an enemy. He said if Trump were to win, it would be the “biggest surprise in the history of the Nobel peace prize”.