US elections 2024: Today or tomorrow? When will we know who has won, Trump or Harris?

American voters are all set to cast their ballots today, i.e. November 5, in the crucial presidential election, which could determine the nation's leader for the next four years. This year's election features a closely contested race between Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump, with polls indicating a tight matchup.

Traditionally, US elections have led to quick results, often declared within hours of polls closing. However, experts anticipate that the close nature of this year's race may extend the wait for official results, the BBC reported. Media outlets may avoid projecting a winner until a clearer picture emerges from various battleground states.

In states such as Pennsylvania, the stakes are particularly high. A narrow margin of victory, defined as a half-percentage-point difference, could trigger a statewide recount. In the 2020 election, the margin there was just over 1.1 percentage points, highlighting the potential for uncertainty in close races.

The legal repercussions

Legal challenges could also impact the election outcome, as over 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed, primarily focusing on voter eligibility and management of voter rolls—many spearheaded by Republican groups. Additionally, disruptions at polling places could further complicate voting procedures and results.

Despite some anticipated delays, there are signs of increased efficiency in vote counting in critical states like Michigan. Furthermore, fewer voters are expected to cast ballots by mail compared to the last election held during the COVID-19 pandemic, which could streamline the process.

Previous poll patterns

In recent elections, results have varied significantly in terms of announcement timing. In 2020, Joe Biden's victory was not declared until the morning of November 7, several days after Election Day, largely due to the uncertainty surrounding Pennsylvania's vote count.

In contrast, in 2016, Donald Trump was announced the winner shortly before 3:00 AM EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election, while Barack Obama’s reelection in 2012 was projected before midnight on Election Day.

Notably, the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore stands out for its prolonged uncertainty. After a contentious battle over votes in Florida, the election was not definitively decided until a Supreme Court ruling on December 12 ended the recount process, securing Bush's victory.