India's Growth Outlook: Nomura's Sonal Varma On Impact Of US Tariffs On FY26 Projections

In an insightful discussion, Sonal Varma, Managing Director & Chief Economist (India & Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura, shares her perspective on India's economic growth in the current fiscal year (FY26). While India’s baseline growth projection stands at 5.8%, the direct impact of US tariffs is estimated to be between 0.2 to 0.3% of GDP, which is relatively low compared to other Asian countries. However, Varma highlights that the broader indirect effects, including negative knock-on impacts on global GDP, business confidence, private investments, and sectors like IT, could dampen growth and job creation in India. The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs is likely to affect urban consumption and discretionary demand in the country.