The peak of the second coronavirus wave in India will come around mid-May (around 20 days from now) with active cases reaching around 36 lakhs, SBI Research in its latest report has said. As states go for partial or weekend lockdowns, SBI Research also revised India's FY22 growth projection to 10.4 per cent real GDP and 14.2 per cent nominal GDP.
It said based on other countries' experiences, might reach its second peak when the recovery rate will be 77.8 per cent. "Given that every 1 per cent reduction in recovery takes around 4.5 days, it translates into around 20 days from now. Also, our estimate shows that every 1 per cent reduction in recovery rate increases active cases by 1.85 lakh," SBI Research reported title 'The Power of Vaccination' says.
Notably, India's case positivity rates have reduced to 20.5 per cent, which is one of the lowest in the world, while the recovery rate has plunged to 82.5 per cent. The country is recording over 3 lakh new coronavirus cases for the past over a week now.
The SBI report adds that India should not be "complacent" as it'll reach the peak of the second wave as "this could lead to a widespread increase in infection as has happened in the current wave".
On the controversy around election rallies being the prime cause of record rise in Covid-19 cases, the report cites high case tally in states like Maharashtra, Delhi and Chhattisgarh and calls for mass sensitisation of public places for disinfection.
The share of death (from Mumbai) of below 50 years in cumulative deaths is quite high at 13.6 per cent in the second wave, which shows the mutant virus is highly impacting India's population that has not been vaccinated to date, it said.
The report says various states are expected to reach their peak around the national peak date, indicating the worst could be hopefully over by the 3rd week of May.
On the vaccine pricing row, the SBI Research note says two factors will determine the price of the vaccine. "The first is the volume of production. As most of the cost of vaccine production is fixed, the cost per dose to produce larger batches is less than smaller batches. The second factor is the stage of the product lifecycle. When the product is new, the price tends to be high to pay off investments in research and development and production facilities and to generate profit while there is a monopoly position."
Different pricing is an important caveat to lure foreign vaccine manufacturers to India and companies like Pfizer have already responded favourably, said the report.
SBI Research report concludes that adopting a cluster-based approach for vaccination is the only way out. "In a country like India, where demographics change from state to state, city to city, and even from one neighbourhood to another, a highly decentralised approach -- seems most logical," the report said.