The Reserve Bank of India's survey of Professional Forecasters projects country's real gross domestic product to contract by 5.8 per cent in 2020-21 but recover by next year by growing 7.4 per cent. The RBI has been conducting this survey since September 2007. "Forecasters have assigned higher probability to real GDP growth lying between (-)6.0 to (-)5.1 per cent in 2020-21. For 2021-22, highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth lying between 7.0-7.4 per cent," the survey added.
Real gross value added (GVA) is expected to decline by 5.8 per cent in 2020-21. Among the large segments of the economy, industry is expected to take the biggest hit of 9.7 per cent, followed by services with 6.1 per cent contraction. Agriculture is projected to grow by 3.4 per cent in 2020-21.
Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is likely to contract by 6 per cent in FY21 but is expected to expand by 8 per cent during 2021-22. "Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is expected to record a large decline by 9.8 per cent in FY21; it is projected to grow by 6.8 per cent in FY22," it adds.
The 30 panellists who participated in the survey expect CPI inflation to fall from 5.2 per cent in the September 2020 quarter to 3 per cent by March 2020 quarter and inch up to 3.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2021-22.
Meanwhile, merchandise exports and imports are projected to decline by 14.6 per cent and 20.1 per cent, respectively, with the consensus at around a current account surplus of 0.4 per cent of GDP for 2020-21. However, current account is projected to slip into the negative zone again in 2021-22. Moreover, the Indian rupee is likely to remain range-bound within Rs 74.10-75.00 per US dollar till Q1FY22.