'400 paar or 295': Counting of votes for 2024 Lok Sabha elections kicks off at 8 am tomorrow

India will announce election results on Tuesday, with investors already factoring in a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi based on exit polls, driving stocks to a record high.

The Election Commission of India will begin counting votes at 8 am local time, with broad trends likely to emerge within hours. You can track the counting with us live on businesstoday.in or watch it live on BT TV.

Several exit polls have projected that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will retain power for a third consecutive term, with more than 350 seats. India Today-Axis My India exit polls, has predicted a massive win for the BJP-led NDA, with the party set to return with seats ranging from 361-401.

These exit polls predict an even stronger performance for the NDA than in the 2019 elections. The BJP is expected to improve its standing in southern India, maintain its dominance in the Hindi heartland states, including Uttar Pradesh, and surpass Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress in her stronghold of West Bengal. Additionally, the BJP is projected to challenge Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha with a strong performance.

It's worth noting that no political party other than the Indian National Congress has ever won more than 400 seats in India's electoral history. However, exit polls are merely predictions and not guarantees. There have been notable instances where exit polls have been significantly off the mark. A classic case is that of the 2004 elections when pollsters predicted an NDA victory due to the 'India Shining' campaign. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP's tally dropped from 182 to 138 seats, while the Congress secured 145 seats and formed an alliance with other non-BJP parties, leading to the creation of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

 The NSE Nifty 50 Index surged 3.3%, its biggest jump in over three years, while the rupee became Asia’s second-best performing currency on Monday. Exit polls provided relief to investors after concerns over low voter turnouts and tight races in some states caused market volatility.

The projected victory and the recent upgrade of India’s ratings outlook by S&P Global Ratings may reverse over $3 billion in withdrawals by global funds from local shares this year.

Monday’s rally also benefited from factors like short-covering by foreign investors, faster-than-expected economic growth data, and a rally in US markets. Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group LP, highlighted a “goldilocks macro environment” defined by benign inflation and strong economic growth, driving the rally in Indian equities.

As investors look toward the poll results, the benchmark 10-year bond yields fell to 6.94% intraday. The Reserve Bank of India’s rate decision on Friday will be closely watched.  With markets already factoring in Modi’s third term, investors are poised for continued economic growth and stability under his leadership.