Amid West Asia uncertainty, RBI may deliver bigger dividend cushion to govt

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to consider a bumper surplus transfer to the Centre this week, with sources indicating that the payout for FY27 could be nearly 20 per cent higher than last year’s record transfer of ₹2.68 lakh crore. The RBI board is scheduled to meet at the end of this week to finalise the surplus transfer.

Sources told Business Today TV that the transfer could be above the ₹3 lakh crore mark, while economists spoken to by Business Today TV indicated that the final amount may even exceed the government’s FY27 Budget estimates of ₹3.16 lakh crore from dividends and profits, including RBI transfers and dividends from public sector enterprises.

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Government sources told Business Today TV that any higher-than-expected surplus transfer from the RBI would help cushion the impact of global uncertainties and provide support amid expenditure pressures the government is currently managing. Officials believe the additional fiscal space could prove important at a time when tensions in West Asia continue to keep crude oil markets volatile and raise concerns over imported inflation.

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Last year, the RBI had transferred ₹2.68 lakh crore to the government, marking the highest-ever surplus payout by the central bank. The transfer had significantly strengthened the government’s fiscal position and supported spending plans without putting additional pressure on borrowing requirements.

Economists tracking the development say an elevated transfer this year could provide the Centre with fiscal breathing room, especially as the government continues to balance capital expenditure commitments with fiscal consolidation targets amid an uncertain global economic environment.