‘Every Himalayan state has hazards…’: IIT professor on the risks of flash floods in India amid Nepal catastrophe

Nepal flash floods: As the glacial lake outburst floods swept across the Himalayan nation, one question has emerged – if a similar situation could cripple India’s mountainous states. According to Dr Ashim Sattar, a professor at Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, who is also an expert on outburst floods, while it is difficult to ascertain if a similar scenario could pan out in India, he acknowledged that Himalayan states are in similar risks.

Dr Sattar, in an interview with The Guardian, responding to a question on which parts of India are the most vulnerable, said, “Everyone in the Himalayas, every Himalayan state has hazards. We can’t deny it.” He added that in the eastern side there are a lot of glacial lakes that have reached their maximum extent, and in the western and central Himalayas, there’s a lot of scope for the lakes, which have not reached their full extent.

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RISKS FOR INDIA

He said as of now it is unclear how or when the status of these states are going to change. Dr Sattar said one can’t answer that question right now and without scientific investigation.

Speaking about downstream risks for the country, Dr Sattar said even though there is direct evidence of climate impacts there is a gap in scientific studies and nothing is quantified yet. He said even in the Indian part of the Himalayas the number and size of glacial lakes are increasing, while glaciers are retreating.

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HIMALAYAN HAZARDS

He explained that when the cryosphere – water existing in solid form, like a glacier – melts, it forms glacial lakes. An outburst could cause damage downstream. Dr Sattar said glacier ice is also a cryospheric component – which leads us to Nepal. A glacier detachment happened, leading to a debris flow.

The third component is permafrost, existing widely in the Himalayas, but not much monitoring has happened in there because it is very difficult.

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“Everything – these lakes, glaciers and permafrost – are all hazards. Unless they’re triggered, they would not cause damage,” he told the news site.

Dr Sattar said considering the vastness of the Himalayas, monitoring it becomes very tricky. The mountain ranges within or even outside of India could eventually drain into the Indian subcontinent, he said.