More pain likely on HDFC Bank counter, stock may fall to Rs 650 mark, says analyst

Shares of HDFC Bank Ltd remain firmly in a bearish grip despite renewed attention around its leadership transition, with technical signals suggesting the stock may still have further room to fall. In the latest market commentary, Hitesh Rathi, Technical analyst at Angel One said the banking heavyweight shows no convincing signs of a reversal yet, warning that the stock could drift towards the Rs 650-600 zone in the near term.

The caution comes at a time when investor focus has sharpened on succession planning after MD and CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan’s announced exit in October. But while the management reshuffle has kept the lender in the spotlight, market experts say sentiment alone has not been enough to repair the damaged chart structure.

Leadership change, but no technical comfort 

Rathi said the stock is in a very clear established downtrend on daily charts, adding that so far we do not see any sort of a trend reversal on the stock despite some positive news coming on the management rejig. That assessment is significant because HDFC Bank, as one of India’s largest private lenders, often carries outsized influence on benchmark banking indices and broader market sentiment.

For investors hoping that succession clarity could trigger a rerating, the message is blunt: the chart is not yet confirming that view. In technical terms, the absence of reversal signals suggests traders are still using rallies to lighten positions rather than build fresh exposure.

Underperformance versus the broader market

The weakness is not just absolute, but relative. Rathi pointed to the stock’s ratio chart against the Nifty 500, saying there is a clear underperformance and that HDFC Bank continues to trade lower. That matters because relative underperformance in a frontline banking name typically indicates capital is rotating into stronger pockets of the market instead of returning to the stock.

The broader market backdrop has also not helped private banks meaningfully, with the background market discussion highlighting pressure in both PSU and private banking counters even as sectors such as FMCG, IT and metals showed resilience during the session.

What it means for investors

The warning is especially relevant for shareholders holding the stock at elevated levels and waiting for a recovery after years of muted performance. “Unless we observe some sort of a trend reversal… we do not foresee any significant upside on the stock,” Rathi said.

For now, that leaves HDFC Bank in an uncomfortable zone: a marquee lender facing leadership transition, lingering investor concerns and a chart pattern that still points lower. Until price action improves decisively, the stock may remain more of a capital-preservation debate than a turnaround story.