India among global largest solar manufacturing bases by 2030: Study

India will be among the largest integrated PV manufacturing bases worldwide by end of this decade with expected installation of about 213 GW of new solar capacity between 2025 and 2029, module manufacturing capacity likely to exceed 280 GW and cell capacity projected to rise from 26 GW in 2025 to roughly 171 GW.

EUPD Research, a globally renowned research group, published its latest analysis, “India’s Solar Surge: The Next Looming PV Price Shock?” The study outlines how the sector is entering a new chapter of maturity and global ambition as it shifts from a government-driven buildout toward a more competitive, technology-driven and sustainability-focused era.

The scale of this expansion is creating substantial export opportunities. At a capacity utilisation rate (CUF) of 65%, which represents the breakeven point for most manufacturers, India’s module export potential could reach about 143 GW by 2030.

With the United States historically absorbing the majority of shipments but now constrained by tighter trade measures, manufacturers will need to deepen engagement with Europe, the Middle East and Africa to sustain production levels and diversify market exposure.

“India’s solar manufacturing surge has delivered scale, and the focus should now be on global competitiveness. Identifying the most resilient markets and their stakeholders, and meeting emerging sustainability and quality requirements will be essential for long-term success,” said Markus A. W. Hoehner, Founder and CEO of EUPD Group.

India’s cost position has improved over the past year, with the spot price gap between Indian and Chinese Tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) modules narrowing from $9/W to $5.7/W between early 2024 and October 2025. This shift reflects advances in automation, scale, integration and production efficiency. However, minimum sustainable prices in India remain 14 to 17% higher than in China and Southeast Asia, underscoring the need for continued technological and operational progress.

Several structural advantages are strengthening India’s prospects in markets where sustainability considerations play an increasingly important role, including Europe. Freight costs from India to Europe represent about 5% of module prices compared with 8.7% for shipments from China, and shipping emissions on this route are about 65% lower. These factors support compliance with evolving European industrial and carbon-related requirements.

The proposed EU-India Free Trade Agreement could add further momentum through potential mutual recognition of testing and certification as well as opportunities for joint investment and technology cooperation.